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Globalization and the Sustainability of Large Current Account Imbalances: Size Matters

Author

Listed:
  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Sun, Yi
Abstract
This paper evaluates the sustainability of large current account imbalances in the era when the Chinese GDP growth rate and current account/GDP exceed 10%. We investigate the size distribution and the durability of current account deficits during 1966-2005, and report the results of a simulation that relies on the adding-up property of global current account balances. Excluding the US, we find that size does matter: the length of current account deficit spells is negatively related to the relative size of the countries’ GDP. We conclude that the continuation of the fast growth rate of China, while maintaining its large current account/GPD surpluses, would be constrained by the limited sustainability of the larger current account deficits/GDP of courtiers that grow at a much slower rate. Consequently, short of the emergence of a new “demander of last resort,” the Chinese growth path would be challenged by its own success.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Sun, Yi, 2008. "Globalization and the Sustainability of Large Current Account Imbalances: Size Matters," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2bs193w4, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt2bs193w4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account imbalances; growth; size; adding-up property;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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