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Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Cuba-Borda
  • Sanjay R. Singh

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract
Concerns of prolonged stagnation periods with near-zero interest rates and deflation have become widespread in many advanced economies. We build a theoretical framework that rationalizes two theories of low interest rates: expectations-trap and secular stagnation in a unified setting. We analytically derive contrasting policy implications under each hypothesis and identify robust policies that eliminate expectations-trap and reduce the severity of secular stagnation episodes. We provide a quantitative assessment of the Japanese experience from 1998:Q1-2020:Q4. We find evidence favoring the expectations-trap hypothesis and show that equilibrium indeterminacy is essential to distinguish between theories of low interest rates in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Cuba-Borda & Sanjay R. Singh, 2022. "Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment," Working Papers 346, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:346
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    2. Masuda, Kazuto, 2024. "The Special Theory of Employment, Exchange Rate, and Money With the Focus on Inflation and Technological Progress," SocArXiv nxshd, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations-driven trap; secular stagnation; zero lower bound; robust policies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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