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Inequality, persistence of the informal economy, and club convergence

Author

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  • Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero

    (School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London.)

Abstract
Several new dualistic models have re-examined the causes of the informal economy and have made testable predictions about the long-lasting role of inequality. We test these predictions using historical indicators of inequality, dating back to the 1700s, and data on the informal economy across 138 countries over the 1991–2015 period. We find that past levels of inequality are the most salient factors explaining the size of the informal economy, while improving credit access, reducing tax burden and business costs play a minor role. These results are robust to using alternative inequality measures from various years during the 1700–1992 period, using instrumental variables, and four alternative measurements of the informal economy. Moreover, there is no evidence that the informal economy is converging to the same steady state. Instead, there is convincing evidence of club convergence. Countries with the highest levels of initial inequality are diverging from those that started with lower levels of inequality and those who have made significant redistribution. Results suggest the importance of early conditions in determining the persistence of the dual economy with important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero, 2020. "Inequality, persistence of the informal economy, and club convergence," Working Papers 103, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgs:wpaper:103
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    File URL: http://cgr.sbm.qmul.ac.uk/CGRWP103.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana & Ahamed, Mostak, 2021. "COVID-19 response needs to broaden financial inclusion to curb the rise in poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Colin C. Williams, 2023. "A Modern Guide to the Informal Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18668.
    3. Rojas Cama, Freddy & Emara, Noha & Trabelsi, Mohamed, 2024. "Financial inclusion and the informal sector," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    4. Cui, Wenyue & Tang, Jie, 2023. "Innovation convergence clubs and their driving factors within urban agglomeration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Nahid Sultana & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam, 2022. "Informal Sector Employment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries in SDG Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana, 2021. "How does inequality affect long-run growth? Cross-industry, cross-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 274-297.
    7. Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero, 2023. "Businesses create more jobs in countries with higher share of immigrants because of skill complementarity," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Salinas, Aldo & Ortiz, Cristian & Changoluisa, Javier & Muffatto, Moreno, 2023. "Testing three views about the determinants of informal economy: New evidence at global level and by country groups using the CS-ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 438-455.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informal economy; Inequality; Club convergence; Institutions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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