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Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?

Author

Listed:
  • Crafts, Nicholas

    (University of Warwick)

  • Mills, Terence C.

    (Loughborough University)

Abstract
We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7% below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the last 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2019. "Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 429, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:429
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Diane Coyle, 2017. "Do-it-yourself digital: the production boundary and the productivity puzzle," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2017-01, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    3. Crafts, Nicholas, 2019. "The Fall in UK Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: a Much Bigger Estimate," CEPR Discussion Papers 13428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    5. Nicholas Crafts, 2018. "The productivity slowdown: is it the ‘new normal’?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 443-460.
    6. Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Solomos Solomou, "undated". "Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth? Electrical power as a case study," Working Papers 18, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge.
    7. Nicholas Crafts, 2004. "Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 338-351, April.
    8. Solomou, Solomos & Weale, Martin, 1991. "Balanced estimates of UK GDP 1870-1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 54-63, January.
    9. Crafts, Nicholas & Fearon, Peter (ed.), 2013. "The Great Depression of the 1930s: Lessons for Today," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199663187.
    10. Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Solomos Solomou, 2014. "Editor's choice Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth? Electrical power as a case study," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 18(3), pages 227-247.
    11. Nicholas Crafts, 2019. "The Fall in Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: A Much Bigger Estimate for the UK," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 625-635, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Diane Coyle & John McHale & Ioannis Bournakis & Jen-Chung Mei, 2023. "Recent Trends in Firm-Level Total Factor Productivity in the United Kingdom: New Measures, New Puzzles," Working Papers 036, The Productivity Institute.
    3. Stephen Broadberry, 2024. "British Economic Growth and Development," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 951-986, Springer.
    4. Diane Coyle & Jen‐Chung Mei, 2023. "Diagnosing the UK productivity slowdown: which sectors matter and why?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 813-850, July.
    5. Halmai, Péter, 2024. "Mélyintegráció-paradigma [Deep-integration Paradigm]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 514-558.
    6. Ajayi, V. & Pollitt, M .G., 2022. "Green growth and net zero policy in the UK: some conceptual and measurement issues," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2255, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Daping Zhao & Sajid Anwar & W. Robert J. Alexander, 2022. "Sources of economic slowdown: A simultaneous equations approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2549-2565, April.
    8. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Ian R Gordon & Ioannis Laliotis, 2021. "Uneven geographies of economic recovery and the stickiness of individual displacement," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(1), pages 157-178.
    9. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "What can we learn from the United Kingdom’s post‐1945 economic reforms?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 354-376, October.
    10. David Jordan & Sweta Pramanick & John D. Turner, "undated". "Do Managers Matter? Management Practices in post-COVID Northern Ireland," Working Papers 042, The Productivity Institute.
    11. Adwan, Sami, 2024. "Does employee ownership improve labour investment efficiency? Evidence from European firms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    12. Edward L. Knudsen, 2023. "Stable or stagnant? Political economy and governance in the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany since 2000," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(S4), pages 90-103, October.
    13. Parteka, Aleksandra & Kordalska, Aleksandra, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Victor Ajai & Karim Anaya & Geoffroy Dolphin & Michael Pollitt, 2022. "Do climate policies explain the productivity puzzle? Evidence from the Energy Sector," Working Papers 016, The Productivity Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; financial crisis; Hodrick-Prescott filter; ICT; productivity slowdown JEL Classification: C22; N13; N14; O47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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