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Credit risk stress testing for EU15 banks: a model combination approach

Author

Listed:
  • George Papadopoulos

    (Democritus University of Thrace)

  • Savas Papadopoulos

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Thomas Sager

    (University of Texas)

Abstract
In bank stress tests, the role of a satellite model is to tie bank-specific risk variables to macroeconomic variables that can generate stress. For valid stress tests it is important to develop a comprehensive satellite model that both preserves the sense of known economic relationships and also exhibits high predictive ability. However, it is often difficult to achieve these desiderata in a single satellite model. Multicollinearity of key macro variables and limited data may militate against inclusion of all important stress variables, thus limiting the range of stress scenarios. In order to address this problem we depart from the custom of using a single model as the "true" satellite. Instead, we generate a full space of candidate models that we then screen for reasonable candidates that remain sufficiently rich to cover a wide range of stress scenarios. We then develop composite models by combining the surviving candidate models through weighting. The result is a composite satellite model that includes all the desired macroeconomic variables, reflects the expected relationships with the dependent variable (NPL growth) and exhibits more than 20% lower RMSE compared to a commonly used benchmark model. An illustrative stress testing application shows that this approach can provide policy makers with prudent estimates of credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • George Papadopoulos & Savas Papadopoulos & Thomas Sager, 2016. "Credit risk stress testing for EU15 banks: a model combination approach," Working Papers 203, Bank of Greece.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:203
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Szybisz, Martin Andres, 2018. "Banking net income and macroeconomics, from multicollinearity to Granger causality using US data," MPRA Paper 90473, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; Macroprudential policy; Non-performing loans; Forecast combination; Predictive modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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