[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/537.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rates and monetary spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Guillaume Plantin
  • Hyun Song Shin
Abstract
When does the combination of flexible exchange rates and domestic inflation-oriented monetary policy guarantee insulation from global financial conditions? We examine a dynamic global game model of international portfolio flows where, for some combination of parameters, the unique equilibrium exhibits the observed empirical feature that currency appreciation goes hand-in-hand with lower domestic interest rates and higher credit growth. When reversed, tighter monetary conditions go hand-in-hand with capital outflows and currency depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Plantin & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Exchange rates and monetary spillovers," BIS Working Papers 537, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:537
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work537.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work537.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    2. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging market economies: what has changed and why?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 103-130, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Dynamic Debt Runs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1799-1843.
    5. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    8. Burdzy, Krzysztof & Frankel, David M & Pauzner, Ady, 2001. "Fast Equilibrium Selection by Rational Players Living in a Changing World," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 163-189, January.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    11. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    12. Jimmy Shek & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2018. "Investor Redemptions and Fund Manager Sales of Emerging Market Bonds: How Are They Related? [Borrow cheap, buy high? The determinants of leverage and pricing in buyouts]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 207-241.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    14. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    15. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
    16. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    17. Jurek, Jakub W., 2014. "Crash-neutral currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 325-347.
    18. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    19. Anonymous, 1963. "Bank for International Settlements," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 510-510, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bernardo Guimaraes & Caio Machado & Ana E. Pereira, 2020. "Dynamic coordination with timing frictions: Theory and applications," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 656-697, June.
    2. Siklos, Pierre L., 2018. "Boom-and-bust cycles in emerging markets: How important is the exchange rate?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-187.
    3. Bernardo Guimaraes & Gabriel Jardanovski, 2022. "Who matters in dynamic coordination problems?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(3), pages 452-469, June.
    4. Hasselgren, Anton & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Graham, Michael, 2020. "Speculator activity and the cross-asset predictability of FX returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Yang Zhao & Zichun Xu, 2021. "The Impact of Cross-Border Capital Flows on the Chinese Banking System," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    6. Goczek, Łukasz & Partyka, Karol J., 2019. "Too small to be independent? On the influence of ECB monetary policy on interest rates of the EEA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 180-191.
    7. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2022. "Private sector debt and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67, december.
    4. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, April.
    5. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Dollar Credit and Carry Trades: A Firm-Level Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 703-749.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    10. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Laeven, Luc, 2020. "Growth-and-Risk Trade-off," CEPR Discussion Papers 14492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Hasanov, Rashad & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar, 2019. "Do political factors influence banking crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 305-318.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Takeshi Tashiro, 2013. "Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-43.
    13. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    14. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & O’Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England, revised 18 Oct 2019.
    15. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2021. "The cost of banking crises: Does the policy framework matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Maurice Obstfeld, 2014. "Never Say Never: Commentary on a Policymaker’s Reflections," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 656-693, November.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    18. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "Winter is possibly not coming: Mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    19. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    20. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency appreciation; capital flows; global games;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.