[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bie/wpaper/549.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Preemptive Investment under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Steg, Jan-Henrik

    (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)

Abstract
This paper provides a general characterization of subgame-perfect equilibria for a strategic timing problem, where two firms have the (real) option to invest irreversibly in some market. Profit streams are uncertain and depend on the market structure. The analysis of the problem emphasizes its dynamic nature and exploits only its economic structure. In particular, the determination of equilibria with preemption is reduced to solving a single class of constrained stopping problems. The general results are applied to typical state-space models from the literature, to point out common deficits in equilibrium arguments and to suggest alternative equilibria that are Pareto improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2015. "Preemptive Investment under Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 549, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
  • Handle: RePEc:bie:wpaper:549
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/download/2785971/2785972
    File Function: First Version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer F. Reinganum, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405.
    2. Touzi, N. & Vieille, N., 1999. "Continuous-Time Dynkin Games with Mixed Strategies," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 1999.112, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    3. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2012. "Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretic real option models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 219-225.
    4. Laraki, Rida & Solan, Eilon & Vieille, Nicolas, 2005. "Continuous-time games of timing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 206-238, February.
    5. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco, 2015. "Quick or Persistent? Strategic Investment Demanding Versatility," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 541, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    6. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.
    7. Simon, Leo K. & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B., 1987. "Extensive From Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt03x115sh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    8. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Ritzberger, Klaus, 2008. "Trees and extensive forms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 216-250, November.
    9. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    10. Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, March.
    11. Simon, Leo K & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B, 1989. "Extensive Form Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1171-1214, September.
    12. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    13. Boyarchenko, Svetlana & Levendorskiĭ, Sergei, 2014. "Preemption games under Lévy uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 354-380.
    14. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    15. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. "The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
    16. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "Investment, uncertainty and pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 278-287, May.
    17. Kenneth Hendricks & Charles Wilson, 1992. "Equilibrium in Preemption Games with Complete Information," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Mukul Majumdar (ed.), Equilibrium and Dynamics, chapter 6, pages 123-147, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.
    2. Ebina, Takeshi & Kumakura, Yuya & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2022. "Hostile takeovers or friendly mergers? Real options analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Strategic investment with positive externalities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-21.
    4. Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2022. "On identifying subgame-perfect equilibrium outcomes for timing games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 74-78.
    5. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2021. "Preemption with a second-mover advantage," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 294-309.
    6. Herbert Dawid & Serhat Gezer, 2022. "Markov Perfect Equilibria in Multi-Mode Differential Games with Endogenous Timing of Mode Transitions," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 363-393, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.
    2. Jan-Henrik Steg, 2018. "On Preemption in Discrete and Continuous Time," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 918-938, December.
    3. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    4. Jan-Henrik Steg, 2015. "Symmetric Equilibria in Stochastic Timing Games," Papers 1507.04797, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    5. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Investment timing and vertical relationships," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 110-123.
    6. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Innovation and imitation incentives in dynamic duopoly," MPRA Paper 59453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bruno Versaevel, 2015. "Alertness, Leadership, and Nascent Market Dynamics," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 440-466, December.
    8. Thijssen, J.J.J., 2003. "Investment under uncertainty, market evolution and coalition spillovers in a game theoretic perspective," Other publications TiSEM 672073a6-492e-4621-8d4a-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    10. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2015. "On the timing of innovation and imitation," MPRA Paper 69161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hellmann, Tobias & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2016. "Fear of the market or fear of the competitor? Ambiguity in a real options game," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 533, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    12. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Strategic investment with positive externalities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-21.
    13. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    14. Jacco J.J. Thijssen, "undated". "Equilibria in Continuous Time Preemption Games with Markovian Payoffs," Discussion Papers 11/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    15. Boyarchenko, Svetlana & Levendorskiĭ, Sergei, 2014. "Preemption games under Lévy uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 354-380.
    16. Moretto, Michele, 2008. "Competition and irreversible investments under uncertainty," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-88, March.
    17. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco, 2015. "Quick or Persistent? Strategic Investment Demanding Versatility," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 541, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    18. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2021. "Preemption with a second-mover advantage," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 294-309.
    19. Rossella Argenziano & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2014. "Clustering In N-Player Preemption Games," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 368-396, 04.
    20. Rossella Argenziano & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2014. "Clustering In N-Player Preemption Games," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 368-396, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal stopping.; equilibrium; Preemption; irreversible investment; real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bie:wpaper:549. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bettina Weingarten (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imbiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.