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Externalities of extreme natural disasters on local tax capacity

Author

Listed:
  • Jhorland Ayala-Garcia
  • Sandy Dall'Erba
  • William C. Ridley
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of extreme weather events on the local tax revenue across Colombian municipalities. We follow a two-step approach to evaluate to what extent a municipality's tax revenue depends on natural disasters taking place both locally and in its trade partners. In the first step, we estimate a gravity model of bilateral trade and construct a trade flow matrix allowing us to measure the strength of the economic relationships between cities. To do so, we build a novel dataset describing the inter-city trade flows for road transported goods in Colombia for the period 2015–2019. In the second step, we use spatial models to estimate the externalities of extreme weather events. Our results reveal that natural disasters in the destination cities increase the tax revenue in the origin city. We provide evidence of the capacity of trade to mitigate the negative effects of natural disasters. **** RESUMEN: Este artículo estudia el impacto de los eventos climáticos extremos en los ingresos fiscales locales en los municipios colombianos. Seguimos un enfoque de dos pasos para evaluar en qué medida los ingresos fiscales de un municipio dependen de los desastres naturales que ocurren tanto a nivel local como en sus socios comerciales. En el primer paso, estimamos un modelo gravitacional de comercio bilateral y construimos una matriz de flujo comercial que nos permite medir la fuerza de las relaciones económicas entre ciudades. Para hacerlo, creamos una nueva base de datos que describe los flujos comerciales entre ciudades de bienes transportados por carretera en Colombia para el período 2015-2019. En el segundo paso, utilizamos modelos espaciales para estimar las externalidades de los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos. Nuestros resultados revelan que los desastres naturales en las ciudades de destino aumentan los ingresos fiscales en la ciudad de origen. Este documento aporta evidencia de la capacidad del comercio para mitigar los efectos negativos de los desastres naturales.

Suggested Citation

  • Jhorland Ayala-Garcia & Sandy Dall'Erba & William C. Ridley, 2021. "Externalities of extreme natural disasters on local tax capacity," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 299, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:region:299
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.299
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    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax revenue; natural disasters; gravity; externalities; ingresos fiscales; desastres naturales; modelo gravitacional; externalidades;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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