[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/608.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Early Warning Indicators for Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Tenjo
  • Martha López
Abstract
We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economies under the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the results of work on industrialized countries that a combination of asset prices and credit provides valuable information of probable future financial crises. However, we go a step further in the analysis of emerging economies and find that a combination of capital flows from abroad and credit is an even superior leading indicator of such events.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Tenjo & Martha López, 2010. "Early Warning Indicators for Latin America," Borradores de Economia 608, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:608
    DOI: 10.32468/be.608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.608
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.608?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    4. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "La crisis," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(22), pages 15-60, January-J.
    5. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:14-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Martha R. López & Juan D. Prada & Norberto Rodríguez N., 2008. "Financial Accelerator Mechanism in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 525, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Simon M. Potter, 2010. "Some observations and lessons from the crisis," Speech 25, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Luisa F. Charry & Martha López P. & Juan M.Ramírez C., 2007. "Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio," Borradores de Economia 451, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    11. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "The financial crisis and credit markets," Proceedings 1135, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Oecd, 2010. "Labour markets and the crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 756, OECD Publishing.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    14. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 295-330, March.
    15. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
    17. William C. Gruben & John H. Welch, 2001. "Banking and currency crisis recovery: Brazil's turnaround of 1999," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 12-23.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    19. Herrera, Santiago & Perry, Guillermo, 2001. "Tropical bubbles : asset prices in Latin America, 1980-2001," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2724, The World Bank.
    20. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Assessing the risk of banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    2. Arteaga Cabrales, Carolina & Huertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonso & Olarte Armenta, Sergio, 2013. "Índice de desbalance macroeconómico," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 8, pages 301-336, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Zárate-Perdomo, Juan Pablo & Cobo-Serna, Adolfo León & Gómez-González, José Eduardo, 2013. "Lecciones de las crisis financieras recientes para diseñar y ejecutar la política monetaria y la financiera en Colombia," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 17, pages 645-674, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    5. José Eduardo Gómez G. & Jair Ojeda Joya & Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Héctor Manuel Zárate Solano, 2013. "The Interdependence between Credit and Real Business Cycles in Latin American Economies," Borradores de Economia 768, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Amador-Torres, Juan S. & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Jaulin-Mendez, Oscar F. & Tenjo-Galarza, Fernando, 2016. "Mind the gap: Computing finance-neutral output gaps in Latin-American economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 444-452.
    7. Juan Pablo Zárate Perdomo & Adolfo León Cobo Serna & José Eduardo Gómez-González, 2012. "Lecciones de las crisis financieras recientes para el diseno e implementación de las políticas monetarias y financieras en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 30(69), pages 258-293, December.
    8. Juan Amador & José Gómez-González & Andrés Pabón, 2013. "Loan growth and bank risk: new evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 365-379, December.
    9. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Andrés Pinchao-Rosero, 2018. "When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 546-566, May.
    10. Ernaningsih, Indria & Smaoui, Houcem & Temimi, Akram, 2023. "The effect of capitalization on the competition-stability Nexus: Evidence from dual banking systems," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Rincón, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), 2013. "Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes," Books, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 2013-09, December.
    12. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 29(66), pages 174-220, December.
    15. Juan Guillermo Bedoya Ospina, 2017. "Ciclos de crédito, liquidez global y regímenes monetarios: una aproximación para América Latina," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 78, February.
    16. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "Reserve Requirements for Price and Financial Stability: When Are They Effective?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 65-114, March.
    3. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Paciello, Luigi, 2014. "Monetary policy, doubts and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 85-98.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Hory, Marie-Pierre & Levieuge, Grégory & Onori, Daria, 2023. "The fiscal multiplier when debt is denominated in foreign currency," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    6. Ricardo J Caballero, 2010. "Sudden Financial Arrest," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 6-36, August.
    7. Nückles, Marc, 2020. "Interest rate policy and interbank market breakdown," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 779-789.
    8. Noel D'Cruz & Davide Crippa, 2012. "Stress Testing," Global Credit Review (GCR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 39-52.
    9. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of the international transmission of US financial stress. A threshold-VAR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-81.
    10. Peter Praet, 2010. "Building a more stable financial system : regulatory reform in a post-crisis perspective," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 8(1), pages 115-126, June.
    11. Konrad Adler & Frederic Boissay, 2020. "Dealing with bank distress: Insights from a comprehensive database," BIS Working Papers 909, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    13. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    14. Marie-Pierre HORY & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Daria ONORI, 2018. "The (low) fiscal multiplier when debt is denominated in foreign currency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2583, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    16. Hur, Joonyoung & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K., 2016. "Financial openness, the financial accelerator and sectoral dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 277-290.
    17. PIROVANO, Mara, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Papers 2013014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    18. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2015. "Leverage dynamics and the real burden of debt," BIS Working Papers 501, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Freystätter, Hanna, 2010. "Financial market disturbances as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 5/2010, Bank of Finland.
    20. Mr. Alasdair Scott & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/252, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial (in) stability; early warning indicators; financial accelerator.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.