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The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Luigi Guiso
  • Massimo Morelli
  • Tommaso Sonno
  • Helios Herrera
Abstract
This paper argues that the financial crisis was a watershed in the burst of populism both on the demand side (voters behaviour) and on the supply side (political parties behaviour). On the demand side, we provide novel results on the causal effect of the financial crisis on trust, turnout and voting choices via its effects on voters economic insecurity. Economic insecurity peaks during the financial crisis and extends to segments of the population untouched by the globalization and robotization shocks. To establish causality, we use a pseudo-panel analysis and instrument the economic insecurity of different cohorts leveraging on a new methodology designed to highlight the different sensitivity to financial constraints for people in different occupations. On the supply side, we trace from manifestos the policy positions of old and new parties showing that the supply of populism had the largest jump right after the financial crisis. The size of the jump is largest in countries with low fiscal space and for parties on the left of the political spectrum. We provide a formal rationalization for the key role of fiscal space, showing how the pre-financial crisis shocks enter the picture as sources of a shrinking fiscal space.

Suggested Citation

  • Luigi Guiso & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno & Helios Herrera, 2021. "The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21166, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21166
    as

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    File URL: https://repec.unibocconi.it/baffic/baf/papers/cbafwp21166.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Post-Print hal-02381560, HAL.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
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    13. Luigi Guiso & Helios Herrera & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno, 2017. "Demand and Supply of Populism," EIEF Working Papers Series 1703, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Feb 2017.
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    16. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2021. "Inequality Aversion, Populism, and the Backlash against Globalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2857-2906, December.
    17. Guiso, Luigi & Herrera, Helios & Morelli, Massimo & Sonno, Tommaso, 2018. "Populism: Demand and Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 11871, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Borusyak, Kirill & Hull, Peter, 2020. "Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 15319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Yotam Margalit, 2019. "Economic Insecurity and the Causes of Populism, Reconsidered," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 152-170, Fall.
    20. Massimo Morelli & Antonio Nicolò & Paolo Roberti, 2021. "A Commitment Theory of Populism," CESifo Working Paper Series 9473, CESifo.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina, 2024. "Population Aging and the Rise of Populism in Europe," Discussion Paper Series 2024_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jun 2024.
    2. Gavresi, Despina & Litina, Anastasia, 2023. "Past exposure to macroeconomic shocks and populist attitudes in Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 989-1010.
    3. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Antonio Nicolò & Paolo Roberti, 2023. "The Shift to Commitment Politics and Populism:Theory and Evidence," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23204, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2021. "A Costly Commitment: Populism, Government Performance, and the Quality of Bureaucracy," CESifo Working Paper Series 9470, CESifo.
    5. Despina Gavresi & Andreas Irmen & Anastasia Litina, 2023. "Population Aging and the Rise of Populist Attitudes in Europe," DEM Discussion Paper Series 23-10, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    6. Piergiuseppe Fortunato & Tanmay Singh & Marco Pecoraro, 2024. "From Rhetoric to Reality: How Ideology, History and Geography shape Populism's Economic Footprint," IRENE Working Papers 24-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Massimo Morelli & Antonio Nicolò & Paolo Roberti, 2021. "A Commitment Theory of Populism," CESifo Working Paper Series 9473, CESifo.
    8. Massimo Bordignon & Federico Franzoni & Matteo Gamalerio, 2023. "Is Populism reversible? Evidence from Italian local elections during the pandemic," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def124, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Bordignon, Massimo & Franzoni, Federico & Gamalerio, Matteo, 2024. "Is Populism reversible? Evidence from Italian local elections during the pandemic," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Supply of Populism; Financial Crisis; Fiscal Space; Age-Earning Profiles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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