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Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak
Abstract
This paper examines the information content of COPOM decisions to change or to leave unchanged monetary policy by estimating the responses of the term structure to changes in the target for interest rates on COPOM meeting days. Within an event-study approach the evidence suggests that market participants anticipate, at least partially, monetary policy actions. Furthermore, it is found that the introduction of the floating exchange and inflation-targeting regime has had a dampening effect on interest rate surprises along the term structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:70
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps70.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. Charles Lima De Almeida & Marco Aur�LIO Peres & Geraldo Da Silva E Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal monetary rules: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 299-302, April.
    14. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    25. Sandro Canesso de Andrade & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2001. "Is it Worth Tracking Dollar/Real Implied Volatility?," Working Papers Series 15, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    26. Arminio Fraga & Daniel L. Gleizer, 2001. "Constrained Discretion and Collective Action Problems: Reflections on the Resolution of International Financial Crises," Working Papers Series 34, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    27. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Roberta Blass Staub, 2001. "Algumas Considerações Sobre a Sazonalidade no IPCA," Working Papers Series 31, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    28. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2003. "A practical log-linear aggregation method with examples: heterogeneous income growth in the USA," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 665-678.
    29. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    30. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    31. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in an Open Financially Integrated Emerging Economy: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 26, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    32. Fabio Araujo & Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & José Alvaro Rodrigues Neto, 2003. "r-filters: a Hodrick-Prescott Filter Generalization," Working Papers Series 69, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    34. Eduardo Lundberg, 2000. "Política Monetária e Supervisão do Sistema Financeiro Nacional no Banco Central do Brasil," Working Papers Series 2, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    35. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    36. Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2001. "Evaluating Core Inflation Measures for Brazil," Working Papers Series 14, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    37. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Eduardo José Araújo Lima, 2002. "The Effects of the Brazilian ADRs Program on Domestic Market Efficiency," Working Papers Series 43, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    38. Luiz Fernando Figueiredo & Pedro Fachada & Sérgio Goldenstein, 2002. "Public debt management and open market operations in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 81-85, Bank for International Settlements.
    39. Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "Private Sector Participation: A Theoretical Justification of the Brazilian Position," Working Papers Series 3, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    40. André Minella, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Gains from Commitment, and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 45, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    41. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    42. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    43. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    44. Paulo Springer de Freitas & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "A Simple Model for Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 18, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    45. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "On the Information Content of Oil Future Prices," Working Papers Series 65, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Correa, Arnildo da Silva & Minella, André, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    2. Gilneu F. A. Vivan & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "A New Proposal for Collection and Generation of Information on Financial Institutions' Risk: the case of derivatives," Working Papers Series 133, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2008. "Long-Range Dependence In Exchange Rates: The Case Of The European Monetary System," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 199-223.
    4. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Barbara Alemanni & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2006. "Herding Behavior by Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series 125, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2011. "Metasde Inflação E Estrutura A Termo Das Taxas De Juros - Uma Análise Dainfluência Da Credibilidade Sobre O Spread Da Taxa De Juros De Longoprazo No Brasil," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 142, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    10. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Eduardo Saliby & Joséte Florencio do Santos, 2006. "Out-Of-The_Money Monte Carlo Simulation Option Pricing: the join use of Importance Sampling and Descriptive Sampling," Working Papers Series 116, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Aloísio P. Araújo & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Contagion, Bankruptcy and Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation Constraint," Working Papers Series 118, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Ana Carla A. Costa & João M. P. de Mello, 2006. "Judicial Risk and Credit Market Performance: Micro Evidence from Brazil Payroll Loans," Working Papers Series 102, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005. "What happens after the central bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 584, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    16. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2006. "Interdependence and Contagion: an Analysis of Information Transmission in Latin America's Stock Markets," Working Papers Series 112, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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