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A Heterogeneous Agent Model of Mortgage Servicing: An Income-based Relief Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Deepeka Garg
  • Benjamin Patrick Evans
  • Leo Ardon
  • Annapoorani Lakshmi Narayanan
  • Jared Vann
  • Udari Madhushani
  • Makada Henry-Nickie
  • Sumitra Ganesh
Abstract
Mortgages account for the largest portion of household debt in the United States, totaling around \$12 trillion nationwide. In times of financial hardship, alleviating mortgage burdens is essential for supporting affected households. The mortgage servicing industry plays a vital role in offering this assistance, yet there has been limited research modelling the complex relationship between households and servicers. To bridge this gap, we developed an agent-based model that explores household behavior and the effectiveness of relief measures during financial distress. Our model represents households as adaptive learning agents with realistic financial attributes. These households experience exogenous income shocks, which may influence their ability to make mortgage payments. Mortgage servicers provide relief options to these households, who then choose the most suitable relief based on their unique financial circumstances and individual preferences. We analyze the impact of various external shocks and the success of different mortgage relief strategies on specific borrower subgroups. Through this analysis, we show that our model can not only replicate real-world mortgage studies but also act as a tool for conducting a broad range of what-if scenario analyses. Our approach offers fine-grained insights that can inform the development of more effective and inclusive mortgage relief solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Deepeka Garg & Benjamin Patrick Evans & Leo Ardon & Annapoorani Lakshmi Narayanan & Jared Vann & Udari Madhushani & Makada Henry-Nickie & Sumitra Ganesh, 2024. "A Heterogeneous Agent Model of Mortgage Servicing: An Income-based Relief Analysis," Papers 2402.17932, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2402.17932
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James E. McNulty & Luis Garcia‐Feijoo & Ariel Viale, 2019. "The Regulation Of Mortgage Servicing: Lessons From The Financial Crisis," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 170-180, January.
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    3. Lauretta, Eliana, 2018. "The hidden soul of financial innovation: An agent-based modelling of home mortgage securitization and the finance-growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 51-73.
    4. Carro, Adrian, 2023. "Taming the housing roller coaster: The impact of macroprudential policy on the house price cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Artavanis, Nikolaos & Spyridopoulos, Ioannis, 2023. "Determinants of strategic behavior: Evidence from a foreclosure moratorium," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Adrian Carro & Marc Hinterschweiger & Arzu Uluc & J Doyne Farmer, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects and spillovers of macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 386-432.
    7. Davison, Lee, 2019. "The Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program: A Systemwide Systemic Risk Exception," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 1(2), pages 1-39, March.
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    9. Cars Hommes & Mario He & Sebastian Poledna & Melissa Siqueira & Yang Zhang, 2022. "CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model," Staff Working Papers 22-51, Bank of Canada.
    10. Benjamin Patrick Evans & Kirill Glavatskiy & Michael S. Harr'e & Mikhail Prokopenko, 2020. "The impact of social influence in Australian real-estate: market forecasting with a spatial agent-based model," Papers 2009.06914, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
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