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Three Layers of Uncertainty: an Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Aydogan, Ilke
  • Berger, Loϊc
  • Bosetti, Valentina
  • Liu, Ning
Abstract
We experimentally explore decision-making under uncertainty using a framework that decomposes uncertainty into three distinct layers: (1) physical uncertainty, entailing inherent randomness within a given probability model, (2) model uncertainty, entailing subjective uncertainty about the probability model to be used and (3) model misspecification, entailing uncertainty about the presence of the true probability model among the set of models considered. Using a new experimental design, we measure individual attitudes towards these different layers of uncertainty and study the distinct role of each of them in characterizing ambiguity attitudes. In addition to providing new insights into the underlying processes behind ambiguity aversion -failure to reduce compound probabilities or distinct attitudes towards unknown probabilities- our study provides the first empirical evidence for the intermediate role of model misspecification between model uncertainty and Ellsberg in decision-making under uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Aydogan, Ilke & Berger, Loϊc & Bosetti, Valentina & Liu, Ning, 2018. "Three Layers of Uncertainty: an Experiment," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 274852, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemth:274852
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.274852
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    Cited by:

    1. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Working Papers hal-02914088, HAL.
    2. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.
    3. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Lars Peter Hansen & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Making Decisions under Model Misspecification," Papers 2008.01071, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    4. Berger, Loïc & Bosetti, Valentina, 2020. "Characterizing ambiguity attitudes using model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 621-637.
    5. Loic BERGER & Nicolas BERGER & Valentina BOSETTI & Itzhak GILBOA & Lars Peter HANSEN & Christopher JARVIS & Massimo MARINACCI & Richard D. Smith, 2020. "Rational policymaking during a pandemic," Working Papers 2020-iRisk-02, IESEG School of Management.
    6. Loïc Berger & Nicolas Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Itzhak Gilboa & Lars Peter Hansen & Christopher Jarvis & Massimo Marinacci & Richard D. Smith, 2020. "Uncertainty and decision-making during a crisis: How to make policy decisions in the COVID-19 context?," Working Papers 666, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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