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Modelling of Distributional Impacts of Energy Subsidy Reforms: an Illustration with Indonesia

Author

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  • Durand-Lasserve, Olivier
  • Campagnolo, Lorenza
  • Chateau, Jean
  • Dellink, Rob
Abstract
This report develops an analytical framework that assesses the macroeconomic, environmental and distributional consequences of energy subsidy reforms. The framework is applied to the case of Indonesia to study the consequences in this country of a gradual phase out of all energy consumption subsidies between 2012 and 2020. The energy subsidy estimates used as inputs to this modelling analysis are those calculated by the International Energy Agency, using a synthetic indicator known as “price gaps”. The analysis relies on simulations made with an extended version of the OECD’s ENV-Linkages model. The phase out of energy consumption subsidies was simulated under three stylised redistribution schemes: direct payment on a per household basis, support to labour incomes, and subsidies on food products. The modelling results in this report indicate that if Indonesia were to remove its fossil fuel and electricity consumption subsidies, it would record real GDP gains of 0.4% to 0.7% in 2020, according to the redistribution scheme envisaged. The redistribution through direct payment on a per household basis performs best in terms of GDP gains. The aggregate gains for consumers in terms of welfare are higher, ranging from 0.8% to 1.6% in 2020. Both GDP and welfare gains arise from a more efficient allocation of resources across sectors resulting from phasing out energy subsidies. Meanwhile, a redistribution scheme through food subsidies tends to create other inefficiencies. The simulations show that the redistribution scheme ultimately matters in determining the overall distributional performance of the reform. Cash transfers, and to a lesser extent food subsidies, can make the reform more attractive for poorer households and reduce poverty. Mechanisms that compensate households via payments proportional to labour income are, on the contrary, more beneficial to higher income households and increase poverty. This is because households with informal labour earnings, which are not eligible for these payments, are more represented among the poor. The analysis also shows that phasing out energy subsidies is projected to reduce Indonesian CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by 10.8% to 12.6% and GHG emissions by 7.9% to 8.3%, in 2020 in the various scenarios, with respect to the baseline. These emission reductions exclude emissions from deforestation, which are large but highly uncertain and for which the model cannot make reliable projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Campagnolo, Lorenza & Chateau, Jean & Dellink, Rob, 2015. "Modelling of Distributional Impacts of Energy Subsidy Reforms: an Illustration with Indonesia," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 206853, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemcl:206853
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.206853
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    3. van Ruijven, Bas J. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Chateau, Jean, 2015. "Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 530-543.
    4. Ben Westmore, 2017. "Sharing the Benefits of China’s Growth by Providing Opportunities to All," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-33, October.
    5. Rentschler, Jun & Kornejew, Martin, 2017. "Energy price variation and competitiveness: Firm level evidence from Indonesia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 242-254.
    6. Jon Sampedro & Iñaki Arto & Mikel González-Eguino, 2017. "Implications of Switching Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Solar: A Case Study for the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Robert J. R. Elliott & Toshihiro Okubo, 2016. "Ecological Modernization in Japan: The Role of Interest Rate Subsidies and Voluntary Pollution Control Agreements," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(3), pages 66-88, Fall.
    8. Stefan Bakker & Gary Haq & Karl Peet & Sudhir Gota & Nikola Medimorec & Alice Yiu & Gail Jennings & John Rogers, 2019. "Low-Carbon Quick Wins: Integrating Short-Term Sustainable Transport Options in Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.
    9. Agboje, A., 2018. "Implication of Switching Fuel Subsidy on Households Welfare in Nigeria," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275938, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & Hosoe,Nobuhiro, 2022. "Illicit Schemes : Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms and the Role of Tax Evasion and Smuggling," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9907, The World Bank.
    11. Jun E Rentschler & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2017. "Illicit dealings: Fossil fuel subsidy reforms and the role of tax evasion and smuggling," GRIPS Discussion Papers 17-05, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    12. Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo & Ilai Levin & Alessia Pagani & Mauro Pisu & Åsa Johansson, 2022. "A framework to decarbonise the economy," OECD Economic Policy Papers 31, OECD Publishing.
    13. Hübler, Michael & Wiese, Malin & Braun, Marius & Damster, Johannes, 2024. "The distributional effects of CO2 pricing at home and at the border on German income groups," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. José M. Labeaga & Xavier Labandeira & Xiral López-Otero, 2018. "Energy Tax Reform and Poverty Alleviation in Mexico," Working Papers 1801, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
    15. Roman Mendelevitch, 2018. "Testing supply-side climate policies for the global steam coal market—can they curb coal consumption?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 57-72, September.
    16. Lekavičius, V. & Bobinaitė, V. & Galinis, A. & Pažėraitė, A., 2020. "Distributional impacts of investment subsidies for residential energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Maulidia, Martha & Dargusch, Paul & Ashworth, Peta & Ardiansyah, Fitrian, 2019. "Rethinking renewable energy targets and electricity sector reform in Indonesia: A private sector perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 231-247.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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