[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/assa23/316528.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Timing of Relevant Weather Conditions in Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Zhiyun
  • Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel
Abstract
A growing empirical literature is analyzing the effects of weather fluctuations on a variety of economic outcomes with the goal of better understanding the potential impacts of climate change. In agricultural studies, constructing weather variables typically requires researchers to define a “season”, a time period over which weather conditions are considered relevant to the agricultural outcome of interest. While researchers often have the background knowledge to make reasonable assumptions about seasonality in crop-specific analyses, these modeling choices are less obvious when dealing with aggregate agricultural data encompassing multiple crops or livestock. In this article, we explore the consequences of assuming an incorrect season in such analyses. We first provide a conceptual framework to show that imposing an incorrect season essentially introduces non-classical measurement error in weather regressors, causing unknown biases in weather impacts. We confirm this finding in simulations. We then propose a tractable data-driven approach to recover the “true” underlying season. The approach consists of a grid search with cross-validation that evaluates the fit of models based on a wide range of season definitions. In simulations, we find the approach is effective at recovering the “true” season under certain data generating processes. Finally, we apply our approach to a US state-level panel of agricultural Total Factor Productivity. We find, unsurprisingly, considerable differences in seasonality across regions. Importantly, our empirical findings suggest that imposing arbitrary seasons lead to substantially different estimates of weather effects in either direction, in line with our theoretical and simulated results. This work contributes to the development of more robust empirical studies of climate change impacts on agriculture and beyond.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zhiyun & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2022. "On the Timing of Relevant Weather Conditions in Agriculture," 2023 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2023, New Orleans, Louisiana 316528, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:assa23:316528
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.316528
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/316528/files/LI_Zhiyun%20manuscript.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.316528?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    2. Baird, Sarah & Özler, Berk, 2012. "Examining the reliability of self-reported data on school participation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 89-93.
    3. Zhang, Peng & Deschenes, Olivier & Meng, Kyle & Zhang, Junjie, 2018. "Temperature effects on productivity and factor reallocation: Evidence from a half million chinese manufacturing plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2010. "Climate Shocks and Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 454-459, May.
    5. Bonggeun Kim & Gary Solon, 2005. "Implications of Mean-Reverting Measurement Error for Longitudinal Studies of Wages and Employment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 193-196, February.
    6. Eric French, 2004. "The Labor Supply Response to (Mismeasured but) Predictable Wage Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 602-613, May.
    7. Abay, Kibrom A. & Abate, Gashaw T. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Bernard, Tanguy, 2019. "Correlated non-classical measurement errors, ‘Second best’ policy inference, and the inverse size-productivity relationship in agriculture," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 171-184.
    8. Beegle, Kathleen & De Weerdt, Joachim & Friedman, Jed & Gibson, John, 2012. "Methods of household consumption measurement through surveys: Experimental results from Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 3-18.
    9. Arthi, Vellore & Beegle, Kathleen & De Weerdt, Joachim & Palacios-López, Amparo, 2018. "Not your average job: Measuring farm labor in Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 160-172.
    10. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    11. Cristina Cattaneo & Michel Beine & Christiane J Fröhlich & Dominic Kniveton & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Marina Mastrorillo & Katrin Millock & Etienne Piguet & Benjamin Schraven, 2019. "Human Migration in the Era of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 189-206.
    12. Nicholas Stern, 2013. "The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 838-859, September.
    13. Anna Folke Larsen & Derek Headey & William A. Masters, 2019. "Misreporting Month of Birth: Diagnosis and Implications for Research on Nutrition and Early Childhood in Developing Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(2), pages 707-728, April.
    14. Dirks, James A. & Gorrissen, Willy J. & Hathaway, John H. & Skorski, Daniel C. & Scott, Michael J. & Pulsipher, Trenton C. & Huang, Maoyi & Liu, Ying & Rice, Jennie S., 2015. "Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 20-32.
    15. Bound, John & Krueger, Alan B, 1991. "The Extent of Measurement Error in Longitudinal Earnings Data: Do Two Wrongs Make a Right?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, January.
    16. Desiere, Sam & Jolliffe, Dean, 2018. "Land productivity and plot size: Is measurement error driving the inverse relationship?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 84-98.
    17. George J. Borjas, 1980. "The Relationship between Wages and Weekly Hours of Work: The Role of Division Bias," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 15(3), pages 409-423.
    18. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abay, Kibrom A. & Abate, Gashaw T. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Bernard, Tanguy, 2019. "Correlated non-classical measurement errors, ‘Second best’ policy inference, and the inverse size-productivity relationship in agriculture," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 171-184.
    2. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    4. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    5. Gagliardi, Nicola & Grinza, Elena & Rycx, François, 2024. "The Productivity Impact of Global Warming: Firm-Level Evidence for Europe," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1485, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Kibrom A. Abay & Leah E. M. Bevis & Christopher B. Barrett, 2021. "Measurement Error Mechanisms Matter: Agricultural Intensification with Farmer Misperceptions and Misreporting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 498-522, March.
    7. Wollburg, Philip & Tiberti, Marco & Zezza, Alberto, 2021. "Recall length and measurement error in agricultural surveys," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Chen, Xinming & Fang, Tong, 2024. "Temperature anomalies and foreign direct investment: City-level evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Holtermann, Linus & Rische, Marie-Christin, 2020. "The Subnational Effect of Temperature on Economic Production: A Disaggregated Analysis in European Regions," MPRA Paper 104606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Osberghaus, Daniel & Schenker, Oliver, 2022. "International trade and the transmission of temperature shocks," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-035, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Jimmy Karlsson, 2021. "Temperature and Exports: Evidence from the United States," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(2), pages 311-337, October.
    12. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    13. Wossen, Tesfamicheal & Alene, Arega & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Feleke, Shiferaw & Manyong, Victor, 2019. "Agricultural technology adoption and household welfare: Measurement and evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    15. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    16. Li Chen & Bin Jiang & Chuan Wang, 2023. "Climate change and urban total factor productivity: evidence from capital cities and municipalities in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 401-441, July.
    17. repec:lic:licosd:41819 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Wang, Hai-jie & Tang, Kai, 2023. "Extreme climate, innovative ability and energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    20. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    21. Yuan, Zhengrong & Ding, Hai & Yu, Qiuzuo, 2024. "High temperature, bargaining power and within-firm wage inequality: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:assa23:316528. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.