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A Comparison of Traditional and Copula based VaR with Agricultural portfolio

Author

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  • Mandal, Maitreyi
  • Lagerkvist, Carl Johan
Abstract
Mean-Variance theory of portfolio construction is still regarded as the main building block of modern portfolio theory. However, many authors have suggested that the mean-variance criterion, conceived by Markowitz (1952), is not optimal for asset allocation, because the investor expected utility function is better proxied by a function that uses higher moments and because returns are distributed in a non-Normal way, being asymmetric and/or leptokurtic, so the mean-variance criterion cannot correctly proxy the expected utility with non-Normal returns. Copulas are a very useful tool to deal with non standard multivariate distribution. Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have emerged as a golden measure of risk in recent times. Though almost unutilized so far, as agriculture becomes more industrialized, there will be growing interest in these risk measures. In this paper, we apply a Gaussian copula and Student’s t copula models to create a joint distribution of return of two (Farm Return and S&P 500 Index Return) and three (Farm Return, S&P 500 Index Return and US Treasury Bond Index) asset classes and finally use VaR measures to create the optimal portfolio. The resultant portfolio offers better hedges against losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mandal, Maitreyi & Lagerkvist, Carl Johan, 2012. "A Comparison of Traditional and Copula based VaR with Agricultural portfolio," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:124387
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.124387
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista, 2004. "A Comparison of VaR and CVaR Constraints on Portfolio Selection with the Mean-Variance Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1261-1273, September.
    2. Alexander, S. & Coleman, T.F. & Li, Y., 2006. "Minimizing CVaR and VaR for a portfolio of derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 583-605, February.
    3. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    4. Mario F. Crisostomo & Allen M. Featherstone, 1990. "A Portfolio Analysis of Returns to Farm Equity and Assets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 9-21.
    5. Carlo Acerbi, 2007. "Coherent measures of risk in everyday market practice," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 359-364.
    6. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2007. "Mean-variance portfolio selection with `at-risk' constraints and discrete distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3761-3781, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Songjiao Chen & William W. Wilson & Ryan Larsen & Bruce Dahl, 2015. "Investing in Agriculture as an Asset Class," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 353-371, June.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty;

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