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Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Aßhoff, Sina
  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Osowski, Thomas
Abstract
With the ECB's policy rate having reached the zero lower bound, traditional monetary policy tools became ineffective and the ECB was forced to adopt a set of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures. This paper examines the effects of the ECB's UMP on inflation expectations in the Euro area as inflation expectations play a key role for achieving the inflation target of below, but close to 2%. Quantifying the impact of UMP is not straightforward, as standard empirical tools such as VAR cannot be applied. Hence, we use the Qual VAR approach pioneered by Dueker (2005) to overcome this problem. We indeed find that UMP leads to a rise in inflation expectations in the short run but that this effect appears to evaporate in the medium term. Our results put some doubt on the common claim that UMP has consistently contributed to a re-anchoring and a stabilisation of inflation expectations at the zero lower bound. Nevertheless, they indicate a rise in medium-term real GDP growth triggered by UMP.

Suggested Citation

  • Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 837, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:837
    DOI: 10.4419/86788970
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    Cited by:

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    4. Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Huma Ghulam & Maryam Batool & Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Abdullah Ejaz & Cristi Spulbar & Ramona Birau, 2021. "Investigating the Causal Linkages among Inflation, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Pakistan under the Influence of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Wavelet Transformation Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy: Comparing euro area and US models with shadow rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Mäkinen, Taneli & Li, Fan & Mercatanti, Andrea & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2022. "Causal analysis of central bank holdings of corporate bonds under interference," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; Qual VAR; inflation expectations; euro area; quantitative easing; unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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