[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/iwqwdp/062021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wage and employment cyclicalities at the establishment level

Author

Listed:
  • Merkl, Christian
  • Stüber, Heiko
Abstract
Although the quantitative relationship between employment cyclicality and wage cyclicality is central for the dynamics of macroeconomic models, there is little empirical evidence on this topic. We use the German AWFP dataset to document that wage cyclicalities are very heterogeneous across establishments. Based on this heterogeneity, we estimate the relationship between employment cyclicality and wage cyclicality at the establishment level. We use this micro-estimate as a calibration target for a macro labor market flow model with heterogeneous wage dynamics that nests the standard search and matching model. Based on this micro-macro linkage, we provide a new quantitative benchmark for the role of wage rigidity in search and matching models. Furthermore, we show that acyclical and countercyclical wage establishments are key drivers for stronger labor market reactions in recessions than in booms.

Suggested Citation

  • Merkl, Christian & Stüber, Heiko, 2023. "Wage and employment cyclicalities at the establishment level," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 06/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics, revised 2023.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwqwdp:062021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/279477/1/fau-dp-06-2021rev.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Fackler & Michaela Fuchs & Lisa Hölscher & Claus Schnabel, 2019. "Do Start-ups Provide Employment Opportunities for Disadvantaged Workers?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(5), pages 1123-1148, October.
    2. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2015. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 222-249, October.
    3. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian, 2022. "Business cycle asymmetries and the labor market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Gary Solon & Robert Barsky & Jonathan A. Parker, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25.
    5. Andr� Kurmann & Erika McEntarfer, 2019. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States: New Evidence from Worker-Firm Linked Data," Working Papers 19-07, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Mark Gertler & Christopher Huckfeldt & Antonella Trigari, 2020. "Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(4), pages 1876-1914.
    7. Abbritti, Mirko & Fahr, Stephan, 2013. "Downward wage rigidity and business cycle asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 871-886.
    8. Sanjay K. Chugh & Christian Merkl, 2016. "Efficiency And Labor Market Dynamics In A Model Of Labor Selection," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1371-1404, November.
    9. John T. Addison & Paulino Teixeira & Thomas Zwick, 2010. "German Works Councils and the Anatomy of Wages," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 63(2), pages 247-270, January.
    10. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Zhang, Lu, 2021. "Unemployment crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 335-353.
    11. Haefke, Christian & Sonntag, Marcus & van Rens, Thijs, 2013. "Wage rigidity and job creation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 887-899.
    12. Christoph Knoppik & Thomas Beissinger, 2009. "Downward nominal wage rigidity in Europe: an analysis of European micro data from the ECHP 1994–2001," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 321-338, May.
    13. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2021. "Worker churn in the cross section and over time: New evidence from Germany," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 781-797.
    14. John Grigsby & Erik Hurst & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2021. "Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 428-471, February.
    15. Merkl, Christian & van Rens, Thijs, 2019. "Selective hiring and welfare analysis in labor market models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 117-130.
    16. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 79-90, Summer.
    17. Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko, 2018. "The Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 01/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics, revised 2018.
    18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    19. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    20. Jardim, Ekaterina & Solon, Gary & Vigdor, Jacob, 2019. "How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? Evidence from Payroll Records in Washington State," IZA Discussion Papers 12124, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Nordmeier, Daniela, 2016. "Revisiting the matching function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-374.
    22. Schaefer, Daniel & Singleton, Carl, 2019. "Cyclical labor costs within jobs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    23. Fatih Guvenen & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Jae Song & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 398-403, May.
    24. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    25. Christian Merkl & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2011. "Extensive versus intensive margin in Germany and the United States: any differences?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 805-808.
    26. Kudlyak, Marianna, 2014. "The cyclicality of the user cost of labor," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 53-67.
    27. Udo Brixy & Susanne Kohaut & Claus Schnabel, 2006. "How Fast Do Newly Founded Firms Mature?," International Studies in Entrepreneurship, in: Michael Fritsch & Juergen Schmude (ed.), Entrepreneurship in the Region, chapter 6, pages 95-112, Springer.
    28. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2022. "Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 207-242, April.
    29. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    30. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 273-335.
    31. Robert E. Hall & Paul R. Milgrom, 2008. "The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1653-1674, September.
    32. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 4-37, July.
    33. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-689, August.
    34. Stüber, Heiko & Seth, Stefan & Lochner, Benjamin, 2020. "The Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel Extension for the IAB Job Vacancy Survey 2010 - 2014," FDZ Datenreport. Documentation on Labour Market Data 202008_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    35. Matthew Knowles & Mario Lupoli, 2023. "The Nash Wage Elasticity and its Business Cycle Implications," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 240, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    36. Mikael Carlsson & Andreas Westermark, 2022. "Endogenous Separations, Wage Rigidities, and Unemployment Volatility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 332-354, January.
    37. Michael W. L. Elsby & Gary Solon, 2019. "How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 185-201, Summer.
    38. Pedro S. Martins & Gary Solon & Jonathan P. Thomas, 2012. "Measuring What Employers Do about Entry Wages over the Business Cycle: A New Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 36-55, October.
    39. Beaudry, Paul & DiNardo, John, 1991. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 665-688, August.
    40. Maria Björklund & Mikael Carlsson & Oskar Nordström Skans, 2019. "Fixed-Wage Contracts and Monetary Non-neutrality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 171-192, April.
    41. Heiko Stüber, 2017. "The Real Wage Cyclicality of Newly Hired and Incumbent Workers in Germany," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(600), pages 522-546, March.
    42. David E. Lebow & Raven E. Saks & Beth Anne Wilson, 1999. "Downward nominal wage rigidity: evidence from the employment cost index," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    43. Anabela Carneiro & Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2012. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker, Firm, and Job Title Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 133-152, April.
    44. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    45. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Lu Zhang & Lars-Alexander Kuehn, 2018. "Endogenous Disasters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2212-2245, August.
    46. Benoît Julien & John Kennes & Ian King & Sephorah Mangin, 2009. "Directed search, unemployment and public policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 956-983, August.
    47. Stüber, Heiko & Seth, Stefan & Stegmaier, Jens, 2020. "The Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel Extension for the IAB Establishment Panel 1993 - 2014," FDZ Datenreport. Documentation on Labour Market Data 202007_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    48. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    49. Barro, Robert J., 1977. "Long-term contracting, sticky prices, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 305-316, July.
    50. Sanjay K. Chugh & Christian Merkl, 2016. "Efficiency And Labor Market Dynamics In A Model Of Labor Selection," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 1371-1404, November.
    51. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    52. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    53. repec:iab:iabfda:202007(en is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Gabriel Ehrlich & Joshua Montes, 2024. "Wage Rigidity and Employment Outcomes: Evidence from Administrative Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 147-206, January.
    55. Peter Ellguth & Susanne Kohaut & Iris Möller, 2014. "The IAB Establishment Panel—methodological essentials and data quality [Das IAB-Betriebspanel: Methodische Grundlagen und Datenqualität]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 47(1), pages 27-41, March.
    56. repec:iab:iabfda:202008(en is not listed on IDEAS
    57. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
    58. Susanto Basu & Christopher L. House, 2016. "Allocative and Remitted Wages: New Facts and Challenges for Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers 22279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Merkl, Christian & Stüber, Heiko, 2016. "Wage cyclicalities and labor market dynamics at the establishment level: Theory and evidence," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 12/2016, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    2. Jonathon Hazell & Bledi Taska, 2020. "Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires," Discussion Papers 2028, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Matthew Knowles & Mario Lupoli, 2023. "The Nash Wage Elasticity and its Business Cycle Implications," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 240, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    4. Choi, Sekyu & Figueroa, Nincen & Villena-Roldán, Benjamin, 2020. "Wage Cyclicality Revisited: The Role of Hiring Standards," MPRA Paper 120307, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Apr 2022.
    5. Andrew Snell & Heiko Stuber & Jonathan Thomas, 2018. "Downward Real Wage Rigidity and Equal Treatment Wage Contracts: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 265-284, October.
    6. Lydon, Reamonn & Lozej, Matija, 2018. "Flexibility of new hires’ earnings in Ireland," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 112-127.
    7. Bauer, Anja & Lochner, Benjamin, 2020. "History dependence in wages and cyclical selection: Evidence from Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Basu, S. & House, C.L., 2016. "Allocative and Remitted Wages," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 297-354, Elsevier.
    9. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Ernesto Villanueva, 2020. "Wage determination and the bite of collective contracts in Italy and Spain: evidence from the metal working industry," Working Papers 2036, Banco de España.
    10. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian, 2022. "Business cycle asymmetries and the labor market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2022. "Wage determination and the bite of collective contracts in Italy and Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Hazell, Jonathon & Taska, Bledi, 2023. "Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires," IZA Discussion Papers 16512, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Michael Elsby & Axel Gottfries & Pawel Krolikowski & Gary Solon, 2023. "Wage Adjustment in Efficient Long-Term Employment Relationships," Working Papers 23-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Martins, Pedro S. & Solon, Gary & Thomas, Jonathan P., 2010. "Measuring What Employers Really Do about Entry Wages over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 4757, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Daniel Schäfer & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Nominal Wage Adjustments and the Composition of Pay: New Evidence from Payroll Data," Economics working papers 2020-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    16. Kudlyak, Marianna, 2014. "The cyclicality of the user cost of labor," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 53-67.
    17. Pereira, João & Ramos, Raul & Martins, Pedro S., 2024. "Wage cyclicality and labour market institutions," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1469, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Haefke, Christian & Sonntag, Marcus & van Rens, Thijs, 2013. "Wage rigidity and job creation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 887-899.
    19. Matteo Cacciatore & Federico Ravenna, 2021. "Uncertainty, Wages and the Business Cycle," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2797-2823.
    20. Snell, Andy & Stüber, Heiko & Thomas, Jonathan P., 2024. "Job security, asymmetric information, and wage rigidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage Cyclicality; Employment Cyclicality; Labor Market Flow Model; Labor Market Dynamics; Establishments; Administrative Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwqwdp:062021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vierlde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.