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Revisiting the euro's trade cost and welfare effects

Author

Listed:
  • Felbermayr, Gabriel
  • Steininger, Marina
Abstract
When, about twenty years ago, the Euro was created, one objective was to facilitate intra-European trade by reducing transaction costs. Has the Euro delivered? Using sectoral trade data from 1995 to 2014 and applying structural gravity modeling, we conduct an ex post evaluation of the European Monetary Union (EMU). In aggregate data, we find a significant average trade effect for goods of almost 8 percent, but a much smaller effect for services trade. Digging deeper, we detect substantial heterogeneity between sectors, as well as between and within country-pairs. Singling out Germany, and embedding the estimation results into a quantitative general equilibrium model of world trade, we find that EMU has increased real incomes in all EMU countries, albeit at different rates. E.g., incomes have increased by 0.3, 0.6, and 2.1 percent in Italy, Germany, and Luxembourg, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Felbermayr, Gabriel & Steininger, Marina, 2019. "Revisiting the euro's trade cost and welfare effects," Kiel Working Papers 2121, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2121
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    Cited by:

    1. Beverelli, Cosimo & Gourevich, Isabella & Heiland, Inga & Keck, Alexander & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2023. "Trade and welfare effects of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Montalbano, Pierluigi & Nenci, Silvia & Dell'Agostino, Laura, 2022. "A non-parametric assessment of the effects of the Euro on GVC trade," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 56-76.
    3. Yang, Yichen & Liu, Wen, 2024. "Free trade agreements and domestic value added in exports: An analysis from the network perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro; Trade; General Equilibrium; Quantitative Trade Models; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-

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