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Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in light of more ambitious EU ETS emission targets

Author

Listed:
  • Osorio, Sebastian
  • Tietjen, Oliver
  • Pahle, Michael
  • Pietzcker, Robert
  • Edenhofer, Ottmar
Abstract
The stringency of the EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) is bound to be ratcheted-up to deliver on more ambitious goals as put forth in the EU’s Green Deal. Tightening the cap needs to consider the interactions with the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), which will be reviewed in 2021. Against that background, we employ the detailed model LIMES-EU to analyse options for the upcoming reforms. First, we examine how revising MSR parameters impacts allowance cancellations through the MSR. We find that under current regulation, the MSR cancels 5.1 Gt of allowances. Varying MSR parameters leads to cancellations in the range of 2.6 and 7.9 Gt, with the intake/outtake thresholds having the highest impact. Intake rates above 12% only have a limited effect but cause oscillatory intake behaviour. Second, we analyse how the 2030 targets can be achieved by adjusting the linear reduction factor (LRF). We find that the LRF increases MSR cancellations substantially (up to 10.0 Gt). This implies that increasing the LRF from currently 2.2% to 2.6% could already be consistent with the 55% EU-wide emission reduction target in 2030. However, we highlight that the number of MSR cancellations is subject to large uncertainty. Overall, the MSR increases the complexity of the market. In face of that, we suggest to develop the MSR into a Price Stability Reserve.

Suggested Citation

  • Osorio, Sebastian & Tietjen, Oliver & Pahle, Michael & Pietzcker, Robert & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2020. "Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in light of more ambitious EU ETS emission targets," EconStor Preprints 217240, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:217240
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    2. Wildgrube, Theresa, 2022. "Fit for 55? An assessment of the effectiveness of the EU COM's reform proposal for the EU ETS," EWI Working Papers 2022-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    3. Zhong, Meirui & Zhang, Rui & Ren, Xiaohang, 2023. "The time-varying effects of liquidity and market efficiency of the European Union carbon market: Evidence from the TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Zaklan, Aleksandar & Wachsmuth, Jakob & Duscha, Vicki, 2021. "The EU ETS to 2030 and beyond: adjusting the cap in light of the 1.5°C target and current energy policies," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(6), pages 778-791.
    5. Burtraw, Dallas & Holt, Charles & Palmer, Karen & Shobe, William M., 2020. "Quantities with Prices: Price-Responsive Allowance Supply in Environmental Markets," RFF Working Paper Series 20-17, Resources for the Future.
    6. Panagiotis Koromilas & Angeliki Mathioudaki & Sotirios Dimos & Dimitris Fotakis, 2023. "Modeling Intertemporal Trading of Emission Permits Under Market Power," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 241-278, January.
    7. Ruhnau, O. & Bucksteeg, M. & Ritter, D. & Schmitz, R. & Böttger, D. & Koch, M. & Pöstges, A. & Wiedmann, M. & Hirth, L., 2022. "Why electricity market models yield different results: Carbon pricing in a model-comparison experiment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Feng, Huchen & Hu, Yu-Jie & Li, Chengjiang & Wang, Honglei, 2023. "Rolling horizon optimisation strategy and initial carbon allowance allocation model to reduce carbon emissions in the power industry: Case of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    9. Schmidt, Lukas, 2020. "Puncturing the Waterbed or the New Green Paradox? The Effectiveness of Overlapping Policies in the EU ETS under Perfect Foresight and Myopia," EWI Working Papers 2020-7, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    10. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Kim, Jihun, 2022. "The relationship between carbon-intensive fuel and renewable energy stock prices under the emissions trading system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    11. Ottmar Edenhofer & Max Franks & Matthias Kalkuhl, 2021. "Pigou in the 21st Century: a tribute on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the publication of The Economics of Welfare," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1090-1121, October.
    12. Quemin, Simon, 2022. "Raising climate ambition in emissions trading systems: The case of the EU ETS and the 2021 review," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Lebeau, Alexis & Petitet, Marie & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2024. "Long-term issues with the Energy-Only Market design in the context of deep decarbonization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Bocklet, Johanna, 2020. "The Reformed EU ETS in Times of Economic Crises: the Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic," EWI Working Papers 2020-10, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    15. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    16. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Osorio, Sebastian & Rodrigues, Renato, 2021. "Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    17. Zhang, Wen & Wu, Zhibin & Zeng, Xiaojun & Zhu, Changhui, 2023. "An ensemble dynamic self-learning model for multiscale carbon price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU climate policy; EU ETS reform; linear reduction factor (LRF); Market Stability Reserve (MSR); EU ETS Phase IV;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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