[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/422020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimation of heterogeneous agent models: A likelihood approach

Author

Listed:
  • Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos
  • Posch, Olaf
  • Wang, Mu-Chun
Abstract
We study the statistical properties of heterogeneous agent models. Using aBewley-Hugget-Aiyagari model we compute the density function of wealth and in-come and use it for likelihood inference. We study the finite sample properties of themaximum likelihood estimator (MLE) using Monte Carlo experiments on artificialcross-sections of wealth and income. We propose to use the Kullback-Leibler diver-gence to investigate identification problems that may affect inference. Our resultssuggest that the unrestricted MLE leads to considerable biases of some parameters.Calibrating weakly identified parameters allows to pin down the other unidentifiedparameter without compromising the estimation of the remaining parameters. Weillustrate our approach by estimating the model for the U.S. economy using wealthand income data from the Survey of Consumer Finances.

Suggested Citation

  • Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos & Posch, Olaf & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2020. "Estimation of heterogeneous agent models: A likelihood approach," Discussion Papers 42/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:422020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/222661/1/1726598764.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
    2. Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2006. "Entrepreneurship, Frictions, and Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 835-870, October.
    3. Brant Abbott & Giovanni Gallipoli & Costas Meghir & Giovanni L. Violante, 2013. "Education Policy�and Intergenerational Transfers in Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1887R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2018.
    4. Iskrev, Nikolay, 2010. "Local identification in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 189-202, March.
    5. Ken Sennewald & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "“Itô's Lemma” and the Bellman Equation for Poisson Processes: An Applied View," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 1-36, October.
    6. Angeletos, George-Marios & Calvet, Laurent-Emmanuel, 2006. "Idiosyncratic production risk, growth and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1095-1115, September.
    7. Yves Achdou & Jiequn Han & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2017. "Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach," NBER Working Papers 23732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-354, May.
    9. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
    10. Jess Benhabib & Alberto Bisin & Shenghao Zhu, 2011. "The Distribution of Wealth and Fiscal Policy in Economies With Finitely Lived Agents," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 123-157, January.
    11. Brant Abbott & Giovanni Gallipoli & Costas Meghir & Giovanni L. Violante, 2019. "Education Policy and Intergenerational Transfers in Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2569-2624.
    12. Mi Luo & Simon Mongey, 2019. "Assets and Job Choice: Student Debt, Wages and Amenities," NBER Working Papers 25801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez & Olaf Posch & Mu-Chun Wang, 2017. "Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models: A Likelihood Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 6717, CESifo.
    14. Ivana Komunjer & Serena Ng, 2011. "Dynamic Identification of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1995-2032, November.
    15. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Schorfheide, Frank & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Kryshko, Maxym & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2012. "Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 826-846.
    16. Khieu, Hoang & Wälde, Klaus, 2023. "Capital income risk and the dynamics of the wealth distribution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    18. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 697-743, March.
    19. Newey, Whitney K. & McFadden, Daniel, 1986. "Large sample estimation and hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 36, pages 2111-2245, Elsevier.
    20. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    21. Cagetti, Marco & De Nardi, Mariacristina, 2008. "Wealth Inequality: Data And Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S2), pages 285-313, September.
    22. Reiter, Michael, 2009. "Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 649-665, March.
    23. Thomas Winberry, 2018. "A method for solving and estimating heterogeneous agent macro models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), pages 1123-1151, November.
    24. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-591, May.
    25. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    26. Serdar Ozkan & Kurt Mitman & Fatih Karahan & Aaron Hedlund, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Heterogeneity and the Housing Channel," 2016 Meeting Papers 663, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. SeHyoun Ahn & Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Thomas Winberry & Christian Wolf, 2018. "When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-75.
    28. Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez & Olaf Posch & Mu-Chun Wang, 2017. "Identification and estimation of heterogeneous agent models: A likelihood approach," CREATES Research Papers 2017-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    29. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    30. Jess Benhabib & Alberto Bisin, 2018. "Skewed Wealth Distributions: Theory and Empirics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1261-1291, December.
    31. Arlene Wong, 2016. "Population aging and the transmission of monetary policy to consumption," 2016 Meeting Papers 716, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    32. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maußner, 2024. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 3, number 978-3-031-51681-8, December.
    33. Jess Benhabib & Alberto Bisin & Mi Luo, 2019. "Wealth Distribution and Social Mobility in the US: A Quantitative Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1623-1647, May.
    34. Heer, Burkhard & Trede, Mark, 2003. "Efficiency and distribution effects of a revenue-neutral income tax reform," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 87-107, March.
    35. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    36. Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Pijoan-Mas, Josep, 2011. "Flat Tax Reforms: Investment Expensing and Progressivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 8238, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. George-Marios Angeletos, 2007. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Investment Risk and Aggregate Saving," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, January.
    38. R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), 1986. "Handbook of Econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    39. Gomme, Paul & Rupert, Peter, 2007. "Theory, measurement and calibration of macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 460-497, March.
    40. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
    41. Marimon, Ramon & Scott, Andrew (ed.), 1999. "Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294979.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khieu, Hoang & Wälde, Klaus, 2023. "Capital income risk and the dynamics of the wealth distribution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. James G. MacKinnon & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Matthew D. Webb, 2021. "Wild Bootstrap and Asymptotic Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 505-519, March.
    3. Balbus, Lukasz & Dziewulski, Pawel & Reffett, Kevin & Wozny, Lukasz, 2022. "Markov distributional equilibrium dynamics in games with complementarities and no aggregate risk," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(2), May.
    4. Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez & Olaf Posch & Mu-Chun Wang, 2017. "Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models: A Likelihood Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 6717, CESifo.
    5. Laura Liu & Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller, 2021. "Full-Information Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models Using Macro and Micro Data," Papers 2101.04771, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    6. Yves Achdou & Jiequn Han & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2017. "Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach," NBER Working Papers 23732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fischer, Thomas, 2019. "Determinants of Wealth Inequality and Mobility in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 2019:22, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    8. Laura Liu & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2023. "Full‐information estimation of heterogeneous agent models using macro and micro data," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 1-35, January.
    9. Laura Liu & Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller, 2021. "Full-Information Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models Using Macro and Micro Data," Papers 2101.04771, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    10. Glawion, Rene & Puche, Marc & Haller, Frédéric, 2020. "A General Equilibrium Model of Earnings, Income, and Wealth," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224580, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez & Olaf Posch & Mu-Chun Wang, 2017. "Identification and estimation of heterogeneous agent models: A likelihood approach," CREATES Research Papers 2017-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Juan Carlos Parra‐Alvarez & Olaf Posch & Mu‐Chun Wang, 2023. "Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models: A Likelihood Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 304-330, April.
    3. Glawion, Rene & Puche, Marc & Haller, Frédéric, 2020. "A General Equilibrium Model of Earnings, Income, and Wealth," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224580, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    5. Khieu, Hoang & Wälde, Klaus, 2023. "Capital income risk and the dynamics of the wealth distribution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Yves Achdou & Jiequn Han & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2017. "Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach," NBER Working Papers 23732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2023. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 869-901, May.
    8. Dan Cao & Wenlan Luo, 2017. "Persistent Heterogeneous Returns and Top End Wealth Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 301-326, October.
    9. Zongwu Cai & Hongwei Mei & Rui Wang, 2024. "Model Specification Tests of Heterogenous Agent Models with Aggregate Shocks under Partial Information," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202405, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    10. Fischer, Thomas, 2019. "Determinants of Wealth Inequality and Mobility in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 2019:22, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    11. Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2018. "Pareto Extrapolation: Bridging Theoretical and Quantitative Models of Wealth Inequality," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt90n2h2bb, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    12. Bayer, Christian & Rendall, Alan D. & Wälde, Klaus, 2019. "The invariant distribution of wealth and employment status in a small open economy with precautionary savings," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 17-37.
    13. Benhabib, Jess & Bisin, Alberto & Zhu, Shenghao, 2015. "The wealth distribution in Bewley economies with capital income risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PA), pages 489-515.
    14. Nils M. Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2021. "Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Systematic Monetary Policy," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 50, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Athreya, Kartik B., 2014. "Big Ideas in Macroeconomics: A Nontechnical View," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262019736, April.
    16. Alexandre Gaillard & Christian Hellwig & Philipp Wangner & Nicolas Werquin, 2023. "Consumption, Wealth, and Income Inequality: A Tale of Tails," Working Paper Series WP 2023-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella, 2017. "Saving and Wealth Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 280-300, October.
    18. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    19. Kaymak, Barıș & Leung, David & Poschke, Markus, 2020. "Accounting for Wealth Concentration in the US," IZA Discussion Papers 13082, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Takeki Sunakawa, 2020. "Applying the Explicit Aggregation Algorithm to Heterogeneous Macro Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 845-874, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous agent models; Continuous-time; Fokker-Planck equations; Kullback-Leibler divergence; Maximum likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:422020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.