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Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth: Reconciling theory and evidence

Author

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  • Prettner, Klaus
  • Trimborn, Timo
Abstract
In recent decades, most industrialized countries experienced declining population growth rates caused by declining fertility and associated with rising life expectancy. We analyze the effect of continuing demographic change on medium- and long-run economic growth by setting forth an R&D-based growth model including an analytically tractable demographic structure. Our results show that, in response to demographic change, technological progress and economic growth accelerate in the medium run but slow down in the long run. Numerical investigation reveals that the time period during which technological progress and economic growth are faster than without demographic change can be very long. Since the theoretical predictions for the medium run are consistent with the negative association between population growth and economic growth found in the empirical literature, the present framework can reconcile R&D-based growth theory with the available empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Prettner, Klaus & Trimborn, Timo, 2012. "Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth: Reconciling theory and evidence," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 139, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:139
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qichun He, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 15(4), pages 626-641, December.
    2. Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge-based economies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-119.
    3. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2015. "Population Structure and Consumption Growth: Evidence from National Transfer Accounts," VID Working Papers 1503, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    4. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    5. Hof, Franz X. & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "The quest for status and R&D-based growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 290-307.
    6. Ettah Bassey ESSIEN, 2016. "Population Growth and Economic Growth Performance in Nigeria (1981 – 2014)," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 143-159, March.
    7. Koichi Futagami & Kunihiko Konishi, 2019. "Rising longevity, fertility dynamics, and R&D-based growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 591-620, April.
    8. Zainab Jehan & Faiza Azhar Khan, 2020. "Demographic Changes and Economic Growth in Pakistan: The Role of Capital Stock," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 155-178.
    9. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 135-153, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic change; technological progress; economic growth; semiendogenous growth theory; transitional dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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