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The Explanatory and Predictive Power of Non Two-Stage-Probability Theories of Decision Making Under Ambiguity

Author

Listed:
  • John D Hey
  • Noemi Pace
Abstract
Representing ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower (which is transparent and not manipulable) and asking the subjects a series of allocation questions (which are more efficient than pairwise choice questions), we obtain data from which we can estimate by maximum likelihood methods (with explicit assumptions about the errors made by the subjects) a signicant subset of the empirically relevant models of behaviour under ambiguity, and compare their relative explanatory and predictive abilities. Our results suggest that not all recent models of behaviour represent a major improvement in explanatory and predictive power, particularly the more theoretically sophisticated ones.

Suggested Citation

  • John D Hey & Noemi Pace, "undated". "The Explanatory and Predictive Power of Non Two-Stage-Probability Theories of Decision Making Under Ambiguity," Discussion Papers 11/22, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:11/22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Alpha Model; Ambiguity; Bingo Blower; Choquet Expected Utility; Contraction Model; Rank Dependent Expected Utility; Subjec tive Expected Utility; Vector Expected Utility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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