[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/warwec/1445.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demand for Electricity on the Global Electrification Frontier

Author

Listed:
  • Burgess, Robin

    (Dept of Economics, LSE)

  • Greenstone, Michael

    (Dept of Economics, University of Chicago)

  • Ryan, Nicholas

    (Dept of Economics, Yale University)

  • Sudarshan, Anant

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Abstract
Falling off-grid solar prices and an expanding grid are revolutionizing choices for nearly a billion people without electricity. Using experimental price variation, we estimate demand for all electricity sources in Bihar, India, during a four-year period when electrification leapt from 27% to 64%. We find that: (i) household surplus from electrification increased five-fold; (ii) both solar and the grid boost electrification but households gain more surplus from the grid; (iii) grid investments and subsidies strongly reduce demand for off-grid solar. When we extend the model to eight African countries where grid infrastructure is weaker and subsidies lower we find that off-grid solar often provides higher surplus than the grid. JEL Codes: O13 ; Q41 ; Q21 ; C93

Suggested Citation

  • Burgess, Robin & Greenstone, Michael & Ryan, Nicholas & Sudarshan, Anant, 2023. "Demand for Electricity on the Global Electrification Frontier," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1445, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1445
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2023/twerp_1445_-_sudarshan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertrand, Marianne & Karlan, Dean S. & Mullainathan, Sendhil & Shafir, Eldar & Zinman, Jonathan, 2005. "What's Psychology Worth? A Field Experiment in the Consumer Credit Market," Center Discussion Papers 28441, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    2. Suresh de Mel & David McKenzie & Christopher Woodruff, 2013. "The Demand for, and Consequences of, Formalization among Informal Firms in Sri Lanka," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 122-150, April.
    3. Michael Grimm & Luciane Lenz & Jörg Peters & Maximiliane Sievert, 2020. "Demand for Off-Grid Solar Electricity: Experimental Evidence from Rwanda," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 417-454.
    4. Marianne Bertrand & Dean Karlan & Sendhil Mullainathan & Eldar Shafir & Jonathan Zinman, 2010. "What's Advertising Content Worth? Evidence from a Consumer Credit Marketing Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 263-306.
    5. Orazio P. Attanasio & Costas Meghir & Ana Santiago, 2012. "Education Choices in Mexico: Using a Structural Model and a Randomized Experiment to Evaluate PROGRESA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(1), pages 37-66.
    6. Kenneth Lee & Edward Miguel & Catherine Wolfram, 2020. "Does Household Electrification Supercharge Economic Development?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 122-144, Winter.
    7. Rema Hanna & Esther Duflo & Michael Greenstone, 2016. "Up in Smoke: The Influence of Household Behavior on the Long-Run Impact of Improved Cooking Stoves," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 80-114, February.
    8. Esther Duflo & Rema Hanna & Stephen P. Ryan, 2012. "Incentives Work: Getting Teachers to Come to School," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1241-1278, June.
    9. Molly Lipscomb & A. Mushfiq Mobarak & Tania Barham, 2013. "Development Effects of Electrification: Evidence from the Topographic Placement of Hydropower Plants in Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 200-231, April.
    10. Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes, 2004. "Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 68-105, February.
    11. Michael Kremer & Jessica Leino & Edward Miguel & Alix Peterson Zwane, 2011. "Spring Cleaning: Rural Water Impacts, Valuation, and Property Rights Institutions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 145-205.
    12. Kenneth I. Wolpin & Petra E. Todd, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico: Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1384-1417, December.
    13. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2019. "Long-Run Price Elasticities of Demand for Credit: Evidence from a Countrywide Field Experiment in Mexico," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1704-1746.
    14. Barron, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2017. "Household electrification and indoor air pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 81-92.
    15. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    16. Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson, 2020. "Short- and long-run impacts of rural electrification: Evidence from the historical rollout of the U.S. power grid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Robin Burgess & Michael Greenstone & Nicholas Ryan & Anant Sudarshan, 2020. "The Consequences of Treating Electricity as a Right," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 145-169, Winter.
    18. Taryn Dinkelman, 2011. "The Effects of Rural Electrification on Employment: New Evidence from South Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3078-3108, December.
    19. Karlan, Dean & Zinman, Jonathan, 2018. "Price and control elasticities of demand for savings," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 145-159.
    20. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 891-951, July.
    21. Kenneth Lee & Edward Miguel & Catherine Wolfram, 2016. "Appliance Ownership and Aspirations among Electric Grid and Home Solar Households in Rural Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 89-94, May.
    22. Miguel, Edward & Wolfram, Catherine & Lee, Kenneth, 2016. "Experimental Evidence on the Demand for and Costs of Rural Electrification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1s55t761, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    23. Pascaline Dupas & Jonathan Robinson, 2013. "Why Don't the Poor Save More? Evidence from Health Savings Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1138-1171, June.
    24. Johannes Haushofer & Jeremy Shapiro, 2016. "The Short-term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor: ExperimentalEvidence from Kenya," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1973-2042.
    25. Kitchens, Carl & Fishback, Price, 2015. "Flip the Switch: The Impact of the Rural Electrification Administration 1935–1940," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1161-1195, December.
    26. Rud, Juan Pablo, 2012. "Electricity provision and industrial development: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 352-367.
    27. Kenneth Lee & Eric Brewer & Carson Christiano & Francis Meyo & Edward Miguel & Matthew Podolsky & Javier Rosa & Catherine Wolfram, 2014. "Barriers to Electrification for "Under Grid" Households in Rural Kenya," NBER Working Papers 20327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Sebastian Galiani & Alvin Murphy & Juan Pantano, 2015. "Estimating Neighborhood Choice Models: Lessons from a Housing Assistance Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3385-3415, November.
    29. Aklin, M. & Bayer, P. & Harish, S.P. & Urpelainen, J., 2018. "Economics of household technology adoption in developing countries: Evidence from solar technology adoption in rural India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 35-46.
    30. Austan Goolsbee & Amil Petrin, 2004. "The Consumer Gains from Direct Broadcast Satellites and the Competition with Cable TV," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 351-381, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mahadevan, Meera & Meeks, Robyn & Yamano, Takashi, 2023. "Reducing information barriers to solar adoption: Experimental evidence from India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. d'Adda, Giovanna & Mahmud, Mahreen & Said, Farah & Bonan, Jacopo, 2020. "The Role of Flexibility and Planning in Repayment Discipline: Evidence from a Field Experiment on Pay-as-You-Go Off-Grid Electricity," RFF Working Paper Series 20-14, Resources for the Future.
    3. Jamil, Faisal & Islam, Tanweer Ul, 2023. "Outage-induced power backup choice in Pakistan," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Fazlur Rashid & Md. Emdadul Hoque & Muhammad Aziz & Talukdar Nazmus Sakib & Md. Tariqul Islam & Raihan Moker Robin, 2021. "Investigation of Optimal Hybrid Energy Systems Using Available Energy Sources in a Rural Area of Bangladesh," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Ridhima Gupta & Martino Pelli, 2022. "The economics of rural energy use in developing countries," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-12, CIRANO.
    2. Kenneth Lee & Edward Miguel & Catherine Wolfram, 2020. "Does Household Electrification Supercharge Economic Development?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 122-144, Winter.
    3. Holstenkamp, Lars, 2019. "What do we know about cooperative sustainable electrification in the global South? A synthesis of the literature and refined social-ecological systems framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 307-320.
    4. Daniela Vidart, 2024. "Human Capital, Female Employment, and Electricity: Evidence from the Early 20th-Century United States," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 560-594.
    5. David Boisclair & Roxane Borgès Da Silva & Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Ingrid Peignier, 2022. "Combien de personnes ont développé des symptômes ou contracté la Covid-19 au Québec ? Une étude exploratoire," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-05, CIRANO.
    6. Peters, Jörg & Langbein, Jörg & Roberts, Gareth, 2016. "Policy evaluation, randomized controlled trials, and external validity—A systematic review," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 51-54.
    7. Bo, Shiyu & Chen, Ting & Liu, Cong, 2022. "Trade shocks, industrial growth, and electrification in early 20th-century China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 732-749.
    8. Jörg Peters & Jörg Langbein & Gareth Roberts, 2018. "Generalization in the Tropics – Development Policy, Randomized Controlled Trials, and External Validity," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 34-64.
    9. Gaggl, Paul & Gray, Rowena & Marinescu, Ioana & Morin, Miguel, 2021. "Does electricity drive structural transformation? Evidence from the United States," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Deutschmann, Joshua W. & Postepska, Agnieszka & Sarr, Leopold, 2021. "Measuring willingness to pay for reliable electricity: Evidence from Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Duncan Chaplin & Arif Mamun & Ali Protik & John Schurrer & Divya Vohra & Kristine Bos & Hannah Burak & Laura Meyer & Anca Dumitrescu & Christopher Ksoll & Thomas Cook, "undated". "Grid Electricity Expansion in Tanzania by MCC: Findings from a Rigorous Impact Evaluation, Final Report," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 144768f69008442e96369195e, Mathematica Policy Research.
    12. Miguel, Edward & Wolfram, Catherine & Lee, Kenneth, 2016. "Experimental Evidence on the Demand for and Costs of Rural Electrification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1s55t761, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    13. Robin Burgess & Michael Greenstone & Nicholas Ryan & Anant Sudarshan, 2020. "The Consequences of Treating Electricity as a Right," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 145-169, Winter.
    14. Bharadwaj, Bishal & Subedi, Mukti Nath & Malakar, Yuwan & Ashworth, Peta, 2023. "Low-capacity decentralized electricity systems limit the adoption of electronic appliances in rural Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    15. Sievert, Maximiliane & Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2020. "Willingness to pay for electricity access in extreme poverty: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    16. Litzow, Erin L. & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K. & Thinley, Tshering, 2019. "Returns to rural electrification: Evidence from Bhutan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 75-96.
    17. Simone Tagliapietra & Giovanni Occhiali & Enrico Nano & Robert Kalcik, 2020. "The impact of electrification on labour market outcomes in Nigeria," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 737-779, October.
    18. Thomas, Daniel Robert & Harish, S.P. & Kennedy, Ryan & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2020. "The effects of rural electrification in India: An instrumental variable approach at the household level," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. d'Adda, Giovanna & Mahmud, Mahreen & Said, Farah & Bonan, Jacopo, 2020. "The Role of Flexibility and Planning in Repayment Discipline: Evidence from a Field Experiment on Pay-as-You-Go Off-Grid Electricity," RFF Working Paper Series 20-14, Resources for the Future.
    20. Khanna, Shefali & Rowe, Kevin, 2024. "The long-run value of electricity reliability in India," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.