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Do Profits Affect Investment And Employment? An Emprical Test Based On The Bhaduri-Marglin Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ozlem Onaran

    (Vienna University of Economics & B.A.)

  • Engelbert Stockhammer

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics & B.A.)

Abstract
In this study, a Kaleckian-Post-Keynesian macroeconomic model, which is an extended version of the Bhaduri and Marglin (1990) model, serves as the starting point. The merit of a Kaleckian model for our purposes is that it highlights the dual function of wages as a component of aggregate demand as well as a cost item as opposed to the mainstream economics, which perceive wages merely as a cost item. Depending on the relative magnitude of these two effects, Kaleckian models distinguish between profit-led and wage-led regimes, where the latter is defined as a low rate of accumulation being caused by a high profit share. Are actual economies wage-led or profit-led? Current orthodoxy implicitly assumes that they are profit-led, and thus supports the neoliberal policy agenda. The purpose of the paper is to carry this discussion into the empirical terrain, and to test whether accumulation and employment are profit-led in two groups of countries. We do so by means of a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. The model is estimated for USA, UK and France to represent the major developed countries, and for Turkey and Korea to represent developing countries. The latter are chosen since they represent two different export-oriented growth experiences. The results of the adjustment experiences of both countries are in striking contrast to orthodox theory, however they also present counter-examples to each other in terms of their ways of integrating into the world economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2005. "Do Profits Affect Investment And Employment? An Emprical Test Based On The Bhaduri-Marglin Model," Working Papers geewp44, Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwgee:geewp44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Onaran, Ozlem, 2004. "Accumulation, distribution and employment: a structural VAR approach to a Kaleckian macro model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 421-447, December.
    2. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2000. "Explaining European Unemployment: Testing the NAIRU Theory and a Keynesian Approach," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp068, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julio Lopez & Ignocio Perrotini Perrotini, 2006. "On floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and effective demand," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(238), pages 221-242.
    2. Sara Amoroso & Pietro Moncada-Paternò-Castello, 2018. "Inward Greenfield FDI and Patterns of Job Polarization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Olivier Allain, 2006. "La modération salariale : le point de vue des (néo-)kaleckiens," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00196500, HAL.
    4. Olivier Allain, 2011. "The impact of income distribution on consumption: a reassessment," Post-Print hal-00712657, HAL.
    5. Eckhard Hein & Lena Vogel, 2007. "Distribution and growth reconsidered - empirical results for Austria, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and the USA," IMK Working Paper 03-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Chaiechi, Taha, 2012. "Financial development shocks and contemporaneous feedback effect on key macroeconomic indicators: A post Keynesian time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 487-501.
    7. Olivier Allain, 2006. "La modération salariale : le point de vue des (néo-)kaleckiens," Post-Print halshs-00196500, HAL.
    8. Julio López & Ignacio Perrotini, 2006. "Tassi di cambio fluttuanti, deprezzamento valutario e domanda effettiva," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 59(235), pages 233-256.
    9. Julio Lopez & Ignocio Perrotini Perrotini, 2006. "On floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and effective demand," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(238), pages 221-242.
    10. Heather Boushey & Christian E. Weller, 2006. "Inequality and Household Economic Hardship in the United States of America," Working Papers 18, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keynesian economics; macroeconomics; capital accumulation; distribution; unemployment; structural vectorautoregression; developed and developing countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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