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Can we measure resilience ? a proposed method and evidence from countries in the Sahel

Author

Listed:
  • Alfani, Federica
  • Dabalen, Andrew
  • Fisker, Peter
  • Molini, Vasco
Abstract
Although resilience has become a popular concept in studies of poverty and vulnerability, it has been difficult to obtain a credible measure of resilience. This difficulty is because the data required to measure resilience, which involves observing household outcomes over time after every exposure to a shock, are usually unavailable in many contexts. This paper proposes a new method for measuring household resilience using readily available cross section data. Intuitively, a household is considered resilient if there is very little difference between the pre- and post-shock welfare. By obtaining counterfactual welfare for households before and after a shock, households are classified as chronically poor, non-resilient, and resilient. This method is applied to four countries in the Sahel. It is found that Niger, Burkina Faso, and Northern Nigeria have high percentages of chronically poor: respectively, 48, 34, and 27 percent. In Senegal, only 4 percent of the population is chronically poor. The middle group, the non-resilient, accounts for about 70 percent of the households in Senegal, while in the other countries it ranges between 34 and 38 percent. Resilient households account for about 33 percent in all countries except Niger, where the share is around 18 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfani, Federica & Dabalen, Andrew & Fisker, Peter & Molini, Vasco, 2015. "Can we measure resilience ? a proposed method and evidence from countries in the Sahel," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7170, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sarker, Md Nazirul Islam & Wu, Min & Alam, GM Monirul & Shouse, Roger C, 2020. "Livelihood resilience of riverine island dwellers in the face of natural disasters: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Cissé, Jennifer Denno & Barrett, Christopher B., 2018. "Estimating development resilience: A conditional moments-based approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 272-284.
    3. Marco d’Errico & Donato Romano & Rebecca Pietrelli, 2018. "Household resilience to food insecurity: evidence from Tanzania and Uganda," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(4), pages 1033-1054, August.
    4. Isaac Gershon Kodwo Ansah & Cornelis Gardebroek & Rico Ihle, 2019. "Resilience and household food security: a review of concepts, methodological approaches and empirical evidence," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1187-1203, December.
    5. Chiputwa, Brian & Blundo-Canto, Genowefa & Steward, Peter & Andrieu, Nadine & Ndiaye, Ousmane, 2022. "Co-production, uptake of weather and climate services, and welfare impacts on farmers in Senegal: A panel data approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    6. Park, Bokyeong & Kennedy Ochieng, Haggai, 2024. "The impacts of rural development project on resilience to climatic disasters: The case of Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Brück, Tilman & d’Errico, Marco & Pietrelli, Rebecca, 2019. "The effects of violent conflict on household resilience and food security: Evidence from the 2014 Gaza conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 203-223.
    8. Premand, Patrick & Stoeffler, Quentin, 2022. "Cash transfers, climatic shocks and resilience in the Sahel," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Joanna Upton, 2019. "Working Paper 316 - Resilience to Diverse Shocks and Stressors in Niger and Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 2442, African Development Bank.
    10. Monserrath Ximena Lascano Galarza, 2020. "Resilience to Food Insecurity: Theory and Empirical Evidence from International Food Assistance in Malawi," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 936-961, September.
    11. Knippenberg, Erwin & Hoddinott, John F., 2017. "Shocks, social protection, and resilience: Evidence from Ethiopia," ESSP working papers 109, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Chichaibelu, Bezawit Beyene & Garbero, Alessandra, 2018. "Estimating resilience outcomes in an impact assessment framework with high-frequency data," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274460, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Marco d'Errico & Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Rebecca Pietrelli, 2018. "Resilience thresholds to temperature shocks in rural Tanzania: a long-run assessment," Working Papers 2/18, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    14. Yeyoung Lee & Beliyou Haile & Greg Seymour & Carlo Azzarri, 2021. "The heat never bothered me anyway: Gender‐specific response of agricultural labor to climatic shocks in Tanzania," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 732-749, June.
    15. Christopher Barrett & Cissé Jennifer Denno, 2016. "Working Paper 236 - Estimating Development Resilience: A Conditional Moments-Based Approach," Working Paper Series 2340, African Development Bank.
    16. Bekele, Adugna Eneyew & Drabik, Dusan & Dries, Liesbeth & Heijman, Wim, 2022. "Resilience of Ethiopian Agropastoral Households in the Presence of Large-Scale Land Investments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    17. Galarza, Monserrath Ximena Lascano, 2021. "Food Assistance and Resilience to Food Insecurity in Malawi: A Gender Analysis," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315274, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    Keywords

    Access to Finance; Rural Poverty Reduction; Regional Economic Development; Economic Theory&Research; Population Policies;
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