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An unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency

Author

Listed:
  • Hall, Viv B
  • McDermott, C John
Abstract
We use unobserved components methodology to establish an Australasian common cycle, and assess the extent to which region-specific cycles of Australian States and New Zealand are additionally important. West Australian and New Zealand region-specific growth cycles have exhibited distinctively different features, relative to the common cycle. For every Australasian region, the region-specific cycle variance dominates that of the common cycle, in contrast to findings for U.S. BEA regions and prior work for Australian States. The distinctiveness of New Zealand’s output and employment cycles is consistent with New Zealand retaining the flexibility of a separate currency and monetary policy, for periods when significant region-specific shocks occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Viv B & McDermott, C John, 2011. "An unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency," Working Paper Series 18555, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:18555
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Australasian common cycle; regional cycles; Unobserved components; common currency; New Zealand; Australia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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