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"But For" Percentages for Economic Development Incentives: What percentage estimates are plausible based on the research literature?

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Abstract
This paper reviews the research literature in the United States on effects of state and local “economic development incentives.” Such incentives are tax breaks or grants, provided by state or local governments to individual firms, that are intended to affect firms’ decisions about business location, expansion, or job retention. Incentives’ benefits versus costs depend greatly on what percentage of incented firms would not have made a particular location/expansion/retention decision “but for” the incentive. Based on a review of 34 estimates of “but for” percentages, from 30 different studies, this paper concludes that typical incentives probably tip somewhere between 2 percent and 25 percent of incented firms toward making a decision favoring the location providing the incentive. In other words, for at least 75 percent of incented firms, the firm would have made a similar decision location/expansion/retention decision without the incentive. Many of the current incentive studies are positively biased toward overestimating the “but for” percentage. Better estimates of “but for” percentages depend on developing data that quantitatively measure diverse changes in incentive policies across comparable areas.

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  • Timothy J. Bartik, 2018. ""But For" Percentages for Economic Development Incentives: What percentage estimates are plausible based on the research literature?," Upjohn Working Papers 18-289, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:18-289
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    Cited by:

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    2. Catherine Fazio & Jorge Guzman & Scott Stern, 2019. "The Impact of State-Level R&D Tax Credits on the Quantity and Quality of Entrepreneurship," NBER Working Papers 26099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Timothy J. Bartik, 2020. "Smart Place‐Based Policies Can Improve Local Labor Markets," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 844-851, June.
    4. Gurmu, Shiferaw & Sjoquist, David L. & Wheeler, Laura, 2021. "The effectiveness of job creation tax credits," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Catherine Fazio & Jorge Guzman & Scott Stern, 2020. "The Impact of State-Level Research and Development Tax Credits on the Quantity and Quality of Entrepreneurship," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 34(2), pages 188-208, May.
    6. Alec Workman, 2021. "Ready for a Close-Up: The Effect of Tax Incentives on Film Production in California," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(2), pages 125-140, May.
    7. Mikhail Ivonchyk, 2022. "Local Economic Development Policies and Business Activity: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of All County Governments in the State of Georgia," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 36(2), pages 92-107, May.
    8. Rickman, Dan & Wang, Hongbo, 2020. "Lights, Camera, What Action? The Nascent Literature on the Economics of US State Film Incentives," MPRA Paper 104477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Cailin R. Slattery & Owen M. Zidar, 2020. "Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives," NBER Working Papers 26603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Timothy J. Bartik, 2020. "Introduction to Special Issue: Learning More About Incentives," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 34(2), pages 95-100, May.
    11. Daphne Kenyon & Robert Wassmer & Adam Langley & Bethany Paquin, 2020. "The Effects of Property Tax Abatements on School District Property Tax Bases and Rates," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 34(3), pages 227-241, August.
    12. Mark Partridge & Sydney Schreiner & Alexandra Tsvetkova & Carlianne Elizabeth Patrick, 2020. "The Effects of State and Local Economic Incentives on Business Start-Ups in the United States: County-Level Evidence," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 34(2), pages 171-187, May.
    13. Andrew Hanson, 2021. "Taxes and Economic Development: An Update on the State of the Economics Literature," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(3), pages 232-253, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax incentives; business location decisions; local economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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