[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ulr/wpaper/dt-09-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Matías Brum

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

  • Mauricio de Rosa

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

Abstract
The economic crisis triggered by COVID-19 is causing a world-wide massive economic downturn, and what is likely to be the deepest GDP contraction for Latin America since the beginning of the XXth century. We microsimulate the short-run effect of the crisis on the poverty rate for the Uruguayan case based on household survey data, publicly available information on both cash-transfers and the increase in unemployed formal wage-earners applying for unemployment benefits, as well as macro-economic estimates of the likely GDP contraction. By combining these data sources, we are able to estimate the effect of the crisis on formal, informal and self-employed workers, while providing full micro-macro consistency to our results. We find that during the first full month of the lock-down, the poverty rate reaches 11.7%, an increase of over 36%. Moreover, new cash transfers implemented by the government have a positive but very limited effect in mitigating this poverty spike. We estimate that most of this increase in poverty could be neutralized with cash-transfers worth less than 0.5% of Uruguay’s annual GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-09-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24909
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodrigo Arim & Matías Brum & Andrés Dean & Martín Leites & Gonzalo Salas, 2013. "Movilidad de ingreso y trampas de pobreza: nueva evidencia para los países del Cono sur," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 28(1), pages 3-38.
    2. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    3. Marisa Bucheli & Nora Lustig & Máximo Rossi & Florencia Amábile, 2014. "Social Spending, Taxes, and Income Redistribution in Uruguay," Public Finance Review, , vol. 42(3), pages 413-433, May.
    4. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
    5. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    6. Amory Martin & Maryia Markhvida & Stéphane Hallegatte & Brian Walsh, 2020. "Socio-Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Household Consumption and Poverty," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 453-479, October.
    7. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Martin Ravallion, 2011. "On multidimensional indices of poverty," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(2), pages 235-248, June.
    9. Cristian Bonavida & Leonardo Gasparini, 2020. "El Impacto Asimétrico de la Cuarentena," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0261, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Abhijit Banerjee & Emily Breza & Esther Duflo & Cynthia Kinnan, 2019. "Can Microfinance Unlock a Poverty Trap for Some Entrepreneurs?," NBER Working Papers 26346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F. (ed.), 2011. "The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195398649.
    13. Wojciech Hardy & Roma Keister & Piotr Lewandowski, 2018. "Educational upgrading, structural change and the task composition of jobs in Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(2), pages 201-231, April.
    14. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    15. Frederic Boissay & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2020. "Macroeconomic effects of Covid-19: an early review," BIS Bulletins 7, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Andy Sumner & Christopher Hoy & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2020. "Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Charles Gottlieb & Jan Grobovsek & Markus Poschke, 2020. "Working from Home across Countries," Cahiers de recherche 07-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    18. Nizamani, Sarah & Waheed, Muhammad Shahid, 2020. "Poverty and Inequality amid COVID-19 – Evidence from Pakistan’s Labour Market," MPRA Paper 100422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. World Bank, "undated". "The Economy in the Time of Covid-19 [La Economía en los Tiempos del Covid-19]," World Bank Publications - Reports 33555, The World Bank Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Paul Jr. Tabe‐Ojong & Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan & Emmanuel Nshakira‐Rukundo & Jan Börner & Thomas Heckelei, 2022. "COVID‐19 in rural Africa: Food access disruptions, food insecurity and coping strategies in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 719-738, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Cecilia Peluffo & Mariana Viollaz, 2021. "Intra-household exposure to labor market risk in the time of Covid-19: lessons from Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 327-351, June.
    3. Blanas, Sotiris & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2023. "COVID-induced economic uncertainty, tasks and occupational demand," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Adesoji O. Farayibi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Nigeria," Working Papers 20/042, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    5. Oikonomou, Myrto & Pierri, Nicola & Timmer, Yannick, 2023. "IT shields: Technology adoption and economic resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Piotr Lewandowski & Katarzyna Lipowska & Mateusz Smoter, 2022. "Mismatch in preferences for working from home – evidence from discrete choice experiments with workers and employers," IBS Working Papers 05/2022, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    7. Pinkovetskaia Iuliia, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on household income: results of a survey of the economically active population," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(1), pages 43-57, March.
    8. Juan Cruz Varvello & Jorge Camusso & Ana Inés Navarro, 2022. "Teletrabajo y distribución de ingresos laborales en Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4605, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    9. Anton Pichler & Marco Pangallo & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona & Franc{c}ois Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?," Papers 2005.10585, arXiv.org.
    10. P. K. Mishra & S. K. Mishra, 2020. "Corona Pandemic and Stock Market Behaviour: Empirical Insights from Selected Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 11(3), pages 341-365, December.
    11. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Habtewold, Tsegaye Mulugeta, 2021. "Our Welfare at The Time of Covid-19: Early Empirical Assessment for Ethiopia," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 9(2), April.
    13. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    14. Lewandowski, Piotr & Lipowska, Katarzyna & Smoter, Mateusz, 2023. "Mismatch in preferences for working from home: Evidence from discrete choice experiments with workers and employers," Ruhr Economic Papers 1026, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2020. "Wage response to global production links: evidence for workers from 28 European countries (2005–2014)," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 769-801, November.
    16. Basso, Gaetano & Boeri, Tito & Caiumi, Alessandro & Paccagnella, Marco, 2020. "The New Hazardous Jobs and Worker Reallocation," IZA Discussion Papers 13532, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    18. Yanguas Parra, Paola & Hauenstein, Christian & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2021. "The death valley of coal – Modelling COVID-19 recovery scenarios for steam coal markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    19. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Filippos Petroulakis, 2023. "Task Content and Job Losses in the Great Lockdown," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(3), pages 586-613, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; nowcasting; poverty; microsimulations; developing countries; Uruguay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-09-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lorenza Pérez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ierauuy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.