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Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms

In: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

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  • Stephen G. Cecchetti
Abstract
Modern central bankers are the risk managers of the financial system. They take actions based not only on point forecasts for growth and inflation, but based on the entire distribution of possible macroeconomic outcomes. In numerous instances monetary policymakers have acted in ways designed to avert disasters. What are the implications of this approach for managin the risks posed by asset price booms? To address this question, I study data from a cross-section of countries to examine the impact of equity and property booms on the entire distribution of deviation in output and price-level from their trends. The results suggest that housing booms worsen growth prospects, creating outsized risks of very bad outcomes. By contrast, equity booms have very little impact on the expected mean and variance of macroeconomic performance, but worsen the worst outcomes.
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Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2008. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 9-43, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:5368
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
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    11. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2006. "The Brave new World of Central Banking," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 196(1), pages 107-119, April.
    12. Ritirupa Samanta & Blake LeBaron, 2005. "Extreme Value Theory and Fat Tails in Equity Markets," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 140, Society for Computational Economics.
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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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