[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/zbw/zewexp/146501.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

ELS issues in robotics and steps to consider them. Part 1: Robotics and employment. Consequences of robotics and technological change for the structure and level of employment

Author

Listed:
  • Arntz, Melanie
  • Gregory, Terry
  • Zierahn, Ulrich
Abstract
Recent advances in the field of digitization and robotics, such as driverless cars, largely autonomous smart factories, service robots or 3D printing, give rise to public fears that technology may substitute for labor on a grand scale. Against this background, the report reviews the existing literature on the employment effects of technological change to derive policy implications and to identify open research questions. We highlight that past technological change has mostly affected the structure of employment, but had only little or even positive effects on the level of employment. In particular, the recent computerization was associated with a declining share of routine-task-intensive middle-skill jobs, while, on net, it has led to an increase of labor demand. The scientific evidence further suggests that technological change in the foreseeable future will continue to mostly affect the structure of labor demand without necessarily changing total employment much. As we argue, the main challenge for the future of work lies in coping with rising inequality, as technological change creates both winners and losers. Policy makers should focus on the qualifications of the workers to ensure that workers' skills match future skill requirements. However, we highlight that there remain many open research questions regarding the need for policy responses, the effectiveness of alternative measures, as well as which skills will be required in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "ELS issues in robotics and steps to consider them. Part 1: Robotics and employment. Consequences of robotics and technological change for the structure and level of employment," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 146501.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewexp:146501
    Note: This report has been produced for the Partnership for Robotics SPARC in Europe via RockEU: Robotics Coordination Action for Europe, a Coordination and Support Action (CSA) project that has received funding by under the EU FP7 research and innovation programme (grant agreement 611247). - RockEU: Robotics Coordination Action for Europe. Grant Agreement Number: 611247. 17.01.2013 - 16.07.2016. Instrument: Coordination and Support Action. Deliverable D3.4.1. - part 1.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/146501/1/867017465.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin M. Murphy & Finis Welch, 1992. "The Structure of Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 285-326.
    2. Didier Fouarge & Trudie Schils & Andries de Grip, 2013. "Why do low-educated workers invest less in further training?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2587-2601, June.
    3. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    4. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2009. "Job Polarization in Europe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 58-63, May.
    5. Picchio, Matteo & van Ours, Jan C., 2013. "Retaining through training even for older workers," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-48.
    6. Autor, David H., 2013. "The "task approach" to labor markets : an overview," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 46(3), pages 185-199.
    7. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    8. Horst Feldmann, 2013. "Technological unemployment in industrial countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 1099-1126, November.
    9. Andrea Bassanini & Wooseok Ok, 2004. "How do firms' and individuals' incentives to invest in human capital vary across groups?," CEPN Working Papers halshs-00194344, HAL.
    10. Vivarelli, Marco, 2007. "Innovation and Employment: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2621, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 452-477, November.
    12. Bernhard, Sarah & Hohmeyer, Katrin & Jozwiak, Eva & Koch, Susanne & Kruppe, Thomas & Stephan, Gesine & Wolff, Joachim, 2008. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland und ihre Wirkungen," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200802, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    13. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1994. "Growth and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 477-494.
    14. Robert J. Gordon, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 54-59, May.
    15. Kampelmann, Stephan & Rycx, François, 2011. "Task-Biased Changes of Employment and Remuneration: The Case of Occupations," IZA Discussion Papers 5470, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Daron Acemoglu, 1999. "Changes in Unemployment and Wage Inequality: An Alternative Theory and Some Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1259-1278, December.
    17. David H. Autor & Michael J. Handel, 2013. "Putting Tasks to the Test: Human Capital, Job Tasks, and Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(S1), pages 59-96.
    18. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    19. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    20. Ernst R. Berndt & Catherine J. Morrison & Larry S. Rosenblum, 1992. "High-Tech Capital Formation and Labor Composition in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: An Exploratory Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Adermon, Adrian & Gustavsson, Magnus, 2011. "Job Polarization and Task-Biased Technological Change: Sweden, 1975–2005," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2011:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    22. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    23. Uwe Blien & Oliver Ludewig, 2014. "Technological progress and regional disparities in (un)employment," ERSA conference papers ersa14p261, European Regional Science Association.
    24. Werner Smolny, 1998. "Innovations, Prices and Employment: A Theoretical Model and an Empirical Application for West German Manufacturing Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 359-381, September.
    25. repec:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:18:p:2587-2601 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Antonelli, Cristiano, 2001. "The Microeconomics of Technological Systems," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245536.
    27. Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2006. "Technical Change, Job Tasks, and Rising Educational Demands: Looking outside the Wage Structure," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(2), pages 235-270, April.
    28. Eli Berman & John Bound & Zvi Griliches, 1994. "Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U. S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 367-397.
    29. repec:eme:rlepps:v:18:y:1999:i:1999:p:303-330 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. R. Layard & S. Nickell, 1985. "The Causes of British Unemployment," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 111(1), pages 62-85, February.
    31. McKinley L. Blackburn & David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1989. "The Declining Economic Position of Less-Skilled American Males," NBER Working Papers 3186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Daron Acemoglu, 2010. "When Does Labor Scarcity Encourage Innovation?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1037-1078.
    33. Christian Dustmann & Johannes Ludsteck & Uta Schönberg, 2009. "Revisiting the German Wage Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(2), pages 843-881.
    34. Bonin, Holger & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2015. "Übertragung der Studie von Frey/Osborne (2013) auf Deutschland," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, volume 57, number 123310.
    35. Haskel, Jonathan & Heden, Ylva, 1999. "Computers and the Demand for Skilled Labour: Industry- and Establishment-Level Panel Evidence for the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 68-79, March.
    36. Sarah Bernhard & Thomas Kruppe, 2012. "Effectiveness of Further Vocational Training in Germany – Empirical Findings for Persons Receiving Means-tested Unemployment Benefits," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 132(4), pages 501-526.
    37. Stephen Machin & John Van Reenen, 1998. "Technology and Changes in Skill Structure: Evidence from Seven OECD Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1215-1244.
    38. George E. Johnson, 1997. "Changes in Earnings Inequality: The Role of Demand Shifts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 41-54, Spring.
    39. Oesch, Daniel & Rodriguez Menes, Jorge, 2010. "Upgrading or polarization? Occupational change in Britain, Germany, Spain and Switzerland, 1990-2008," MPRA Paper 21040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Richard B. Freeman, 1994. "Working Under Different Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number free94-1.
    41. Charlotte Senftleben-König & Hanna Wielandt, "undated". "The Polarization of Employment in German Local Labor Markets," BDPEMS Working Papers 2014007, Berlin School of Economics.
    42. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    43. William D. Nordhaus, 2021. "Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 299-332, January.
    44. Bound, John & Johnson, George, 1992. "Changes in the Structure of Wages in the 1980's: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 371-392, June.
    45. Massimiliano Tancioni & Roberto Simonetti, 2002. "A Macroeconometric Model for the Analysis of the Impact of Technological Change and Trade on Employment," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 13(1-3), pages 185-221, January.
    46. Melanie Arntz & Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn, 2016. "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 189, OECD Publishing.
    47. Rohrbach-Schmidt, Daniela & Tiemann, Michael, 2013. "Changes in workplace tasks in Germany : evaluating skill and task measures," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 46(3), pages 215-237.
    48. Pini, Paolo, 1995. "Economic growth, technological change and employment: empirical evidence for a cumulative growth model with external causation for nine OECD countries: 1960-1990," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 185-213, June.
    49. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2007. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 118-133, February.
    50. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1998. "Technological Progress, Job Creation and Job Destruction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 733-753, October.
    51. repec:bla:jindec:v:46:y:1998:i:3:p:359-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    52. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    53. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    54. Firpo, Sergio & Fortin, Nicole M. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2011. "Occupational Tasks and Changes in the Wage Structure," IZA Discussion Papers 5542, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    55. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 66-70, May.
    56. Arnold, Daniel & Butschek, Sebastian & Steffes, Susanne & Müller, Dana (ed.), 2016. "Monitor - Digitalisierung am Arbeitsplatz: Aktuelle Ergebnisse einer Betriebs- und Beschäftigtenbefragung," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 148157.
    57. Werner Smolny, 2002. "Employment Adjustment at the Firm Level. A Theoretical Model and an Empirical Investigation for West German Manufacturing Firms," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, March.
    58. Appelbaum, Eileen & Schettkat, Ronald, 1994. "Das Ende der Vollbeschäftigung? Zur Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Industrieländern," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(4), pages 193-202.
    59. Kuckulenz, Anja & Zwick, Thomas, 2003. "The Impact of Training on Earnings: Differences Between Participant Groups and Training Forms," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-57, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    60. Dirk Antonczyk & Thomas DeLeire & Bernd Fitzenberger, 2018. "Polarization and Rising Wage Inequality: Comparing the U.S. and Germany," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-33, April.
    61. Uwe Blien & Helge Sanner, 2014. "Technological progress and employment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 245-251.
    62. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 300-323, May.
    63. Francis Green, 2012. "Employee Involvement, Technology and Evolution in Job Skills: A Task-Based Analysis," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(1), pages 36-67, January.
    64. repec:sae:niesru:v:111:y::i:1:p:62-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    65. Schulte-Braucks, Philipp, 2013. "Von Schweden lernen: Weiterbildung gering Qualifizierter im Rahmen der kommunalen Erwachsenenbildung (Komvux)," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Skill Formation and Labor Markets SP I 2013-502, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    66. Pajarinen, Mika & Rouvinen, Petri, 2014. "Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment," ETLA Brief 22, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    67. Robert Z. Lawrence & Matthew J. Slaughter, 1993. "International Trade and American Wages in the 1980s: Giant Sucking Sound or Small Hiccup?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2 Microec), pages 161-226.
    68. Cecilia ALBERT & Carlos GARCÍA-SERRANO & Virginia HERNANZ, 2010. "On-the-job training in Europe: Determinants and wage returns," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 149(3), pages 315-341, September.
    69. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    70. Marco Vivarelli, 1995. "The Economics of Technology and Employment," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 458.
    71. Atkinson, A B, 2008. "The Changing Distribution of Earnings in OECD Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199532438.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chigbu, Bianca Ifeoma & Nekhwevha, Fhulu H., 2021. "The future of work and uncertain labour alternatives as we live through the industrial age of possible singularity: Evidence from South Africa," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Luis Moreno, 2019. "Robotization and Welfare Scenarios," Working Papers 1901, Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos (IPP), CSIC.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maarten Goos & Melanie Arntz & Ulrich Zierahn & Terry Gregory & Stephanie Carretero Gomez & Ignacio Gonzalez Vazquez & Koen Jonkers, 2019. "The Impact of Technological Innovation on the Future of Work," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2019-03, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Koomen, Miriam & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2022. "Occupational tasks and wage inequality in West Germany: A decomposition analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    4. Aepli, Manuel, 2019. "Technological change and occupation mobility: A task-based approach to horizontal mismatch," GLO Discussion Paper Series 361, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Thomsen, Stephan L, 2018. "Die Rolle der Computerisierung und Digitalisierung für Beschäftigung und Einkommen," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-645, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Azio Barani, 2021. "Innovazione tecnologica e lavoro: automazione, occupazione e impatti socio-economici," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(114), pages 51-79.
    8. Koomen, Miriam & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2022. "Occupational Tasks and Wage Inequality in Germany: A Decomposition Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 15702, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Anna Sabadash, 2013. "ICT-induced Technological Progress and Employment: A Literature Review," JRC Working Papers on Digital Economy 2013-07, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Thor Berger & Carl Benedikt Frey, 2016. "Structural Transformation in the OECD: Digitalisation, Deindustrialisation and the Future of Work," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    11. Anna Sabadash, 2013. "ICT-induced Technological Progress and Employment: a Happy Marriage or a Dangerous Liaison? A Literature Review," JRC Research Reports JRC76143, Joint Research Centre.
    12. Raquel Sebastian, 2018. "Explaining job polarisation in Spain from a task perspective," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 215-248, June.
    13. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    14. Consoli, Davide & Marin, Giovanni & Rentocchini, Francesco & Vona, Francesco, 2023. "Routinization, within-occupation task changes and long-run employment dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    15. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    16. Beckert, Bernd & Buschak, Daniela & Graf, Birgit & Hägele, Martin & Jäger, Angela & Moll, Cornelius & Schmoch, Ulrich & Wydra, Sven, 2016. "Automatisierung und Robotik-Systeme," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 11-2016, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.
    17. Andrea Salvatori, 2018. "The anatomy of job polarisation in the UK," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 52(1), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Du Yuhong & Wei Xiahai, 2020. "Task content routinisation, technological change and labour turnover: Evidence from China," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 31(3), pages 324-346, September.
    19. Gunther Tichy, 2016. "Geht der Arbeitsgesellschaft die Arbeit aus?," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(12), pages 853-871, December.
    20. Salverda, Wiemer & Checchi, Daniele, 2014. "Labour-Market Institutions and the Dispersion of Wage Earnings," IZA Discussion Papers 8220, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewexp:146501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.