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Rational housing bubble

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  • Bo Zhao
Abstract
This paper studies an economy inhabited by overlapping generations of households and investors, with the only difference between the two being that households derive utility from housing services, whereas investors do not. Tight collateral constraint limits the borrowing capacity of households and drives the equilibrium interest rate level down to the housing price growth rate, which makes housing attractive as a store of value for investors. A housing bubble arises in an equilibrium in which investors hold houses for resale purposes only and without the expectation of receiving a dividend either in terms of utility or in terms of rent. Pension reform that reduces the contribution rate may increase the supply of credit and create the housing bubble. Empirical findings from China are consistent with theoretical predictions. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Zhao, 2015. "Rational housing bubble," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(1), pages 141-201, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:60:y:2015:i:1:p:141-201
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-015-0889-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 505-539, August.
    2. Dong, Feng & Liu, Jianfeng & Xu, Zhiwei & Zhao, Bo, 2021. "Flight to housing in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2018. "Bubble on real estate: The role of altruism and fiscal policy," Working Papers halshs-01885932, HAL.
    5. Jia Pengfei & Lim King Yoong, 2021. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 151-183, January.
    6. Gregory Phelan, 2017. "Collateralized borrowing and increasing risk," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 471-502, February.
    7. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan, 2016. "Toxic asset bubbles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 241-271, February.
      • Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan, 2016. "Toxic asset bubbles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 241-271, February.
    8. Feng Dong & Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2018. "The perils of credit booms," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(4), pages 819-861, December.
    9. Evan Osborne, 2016. "China’s transitioning class identity," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Bengui, Julien & Phan, Toan, 2018. "Asset pledgeability and endogenously leveraged bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 280-314.
    11. Guoying Deng & Xuyuan Zhang, 2024. "Platform-Mediated Consolidation and Offline Store Expansion: Evidence from Real Estate Brokerages in Major Chinese Cities," Papers 2409.04326, arXiv.org.
    12. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.
    13. Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard Lise & Seegmuller Thomas, 2019. "Bubble on real estate: the role of altruism and fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 1-18, September.
    14. Shingo Ishiguro, 2022. "Management cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(1), pages 257-300, February.
    15. Shengguo Li & Jiaqi Liu & Jichang Dong & Xuerong Li, 2021. "20 Years of Research on Real Estate Bubbles, Risk and Exuberance: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    16. Fischer, Thomas, 2023. "Spatial inequality and housing in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing bubble; Collateral constraint; Pension reform; Chinese economy; G12; E20; R21;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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