[Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]"> [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]">
[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/indcch/v31y2022i2p358-409..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach
[Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]

Author

Listed:
  • Severin Reissl
  • Alessandro Caiani
  • Francesco Lamperti
  • Mattia Guerini
  • Fabio Vanni
  • Giorgio Fagiolo
  • Tommaso Ferraresi
  • Leonardo Ghezzi
  • Mauro Napoletano
  • Andrea Roventini
Abstract
We build a novel interregional computational input–output model to assess the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. Lockdowns are modeled as shocks to labor supply, calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. When estimated on data from the first lockdown, our model closely reproduces the observed economic dynamics during spring 2020. We also show that the model delivers a good out-of-sample performance during fall and winter 2020 and demonstrate that it can be used to analyze counterfactual scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:31:y:2022:i:2:p:358-409.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/icc/dtac003
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Bodenstein & Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Guerrieri, 2022. "Social distancing and supply disruptions in a pandemic," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 681-721, May.
    2. Guerini, Mattia & Harting, Philipp & Napoletano, Mauro, 2022. "Governance structure, technical change, and industry competition," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2024. "Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 391-433.
    4. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    5. Jerome Adda & Russell W. Cooper, 2003. "Dynamic Economics: Quantitative Methods and Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012014, April.
    6. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Armanda Cetrulo & Dario Guarascio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "The Privilege of Working From Home at the Time of Social Distancing," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 142-147, May.
    8. Elie Gerschel & Alejandra Martinez & Isabelle Mejean, 2020. "Propagation of shocks in global value chains: the coronavirus case," Post-Print halshs-02515364, HAL.
    9. Palomino, Juan C. & Rodríguez, Juan G. & Sebastian, Raquel, 2020. "Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    11. Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), 2019. "Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-030-16237-5.
    12. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bob van Burken & Yasushi Kondo, 2019. "Hypothetical extractions from a global perspective," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 505-519, October.
    13. Collard, Fabrice & Hellwig, Christian & Assenza, Tiziana & Kankanamge, Sumudu & Dupaigne, Martial & Werquin, Nicolas & Feve, Patrick, 2020. "The Hammer and the Dance: Equilibrium and Optimal Policy during a Pandemic Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14731, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Farhi, Emmanuel & Baqaee, David Rezza, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl, 2020. "ABC: An Agent Based Exploration of the Macroeconomic Effects of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8763, CESifo.
    16. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 0. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    17. Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose, 2019. "Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts: Introduction," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts, chapter 0, pages 1-11, Springer.
    18. Elco Koks & Raghav Pant & Trond Husby & Johannes Többen & Jan Oosterhaven, 2019. "Multiregional Disaster Impact Models: Recent Advances and Comparison of Outcomes," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts, chapter 0, pages 191-218, Springer.
    19. Korinek, Anton & Bethune, Zachary, 2020. "COVID-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods," CEPR Discussion Papers 14596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Sam Cole, 1988. "The Delayed Impacts Of Plant Closures In A Reformulated Leontief Model," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 135-149, January.
    21. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    22. Jan Oosterhaven & Maaike C. Bouwmeester, 2016. "A New Approach To Modeling The Impact Of Disruptive Events," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 583-595, September.
    23. Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
    24. Kenny, Geoff & Morgan, Julian, 2011. "Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis," Occasional Paper Series 130, European Central Bank.
    25. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    26. Anton Pichler & Marco Pangallo & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona & Franc{c}ois Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?," Papers 2005.10585, arXiv.org.
    27. A. Cetrulo & D. Guarascio & M. E. Virgillito, 2022. "Working from home and the explosion of enduring divides: income, employment and safety risks," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(2), pages 345-402, July.
    28. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    29. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015. "Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
    30. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
    31. Scheinkman, Jose A & Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Self-Organized Criticality and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 417-421, May.
    32. Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Fabio Vanni & Alessandro Caiani & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Severin Reissl & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "On the Economic and Health Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Italian Regions: A Value Chain Approach," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-18, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    33. Kenny, Geoff & Morgan, Julian, 2011. "Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis," Occasional Paper Series 130, European Central Bank.
    34. Mellacher, Patrick, 2020. "COVID-Town: An Integrated Economic-Epidemiological Agent-Based Model," MPRA Paper 103661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2024. "A regional input-output model of the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 100-130, January.
    2. Anton Pichler & Jan Hurt & Tobias Reisch & Johannes Stangl & Stefan Thurner, 2024. "Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies," Papers 2409.07981, arXiv.org.
    3. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2023. "V for vaccines and variants," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 991-1046, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Assessing the economic effects of lockdowns in Italy: a computational Input-Output approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2024. "A regional input-output model of the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 100-130, January.
    3. Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," CID Working Papers 390, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi & Michael J. Mina & James H. Stock, 2020. "Reopening Scenarios," NBER Working Papers 27244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christopher Cotton & Bahman Kashi & Huw Lloyd‐Ellis & Frederic Tremblay & Brett Crowley, 2022. "Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID‐19 policy responses on Canada's provinces in (almost) real time," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 406-445, February.
    6. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl, 2020. "ABC: An Agent Based Exploration of the Macroeconomic Effects of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8763, CESifo.
    9. Brinca, Pedro & Duarte, Joao B. & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Measuring labor supply and demand shocks during COVID-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lazebnik, Teddy & Shami, Labib & Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky, Svetlana, 2023. "Intervention policy influence on the effect of epidemiological crisis on industry-level production through input–output networks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    12. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    13. Giammetti, Raffaele & Papi, Luca & Teobaldelli, Désirée & Ticchi, Davide, 2022. "The optimality of age-based lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 722-738.
    14. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    15. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    16. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic," CREATES Research Papers 2021-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Naudé, Wim, 2020. "Entrepreneurial Recovery from COVID-19: Decentralization, Democratization, Demand, Distribution, and Demography," GLO Discussion Paper Series 631, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2022. "Work that can be done from home: evidence on variation within and across occupations and industries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Anand Chopra & Michael B. Devereux & Amartya Lahiri, 2022. "Pandemics through the lens of occupations," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 540-580, February.
    20. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed Ali Yildirim, 2022. "The Sectoral Costs of the Pandemic: What is the Role of Openness?," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 431-451, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:31:y:2022:i:2:p:358-409.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/icc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.