[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jae/japmet/v16y2001i6p727-748.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The demand for M3 in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • G. Coenen

    (Directorate General Research, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

  • J.-L. Vega

    (Directorate General Research, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

Abstract
In this paper, an empirically stable money demand model for M3 in the euro area is constructed. Starting with a multivariate system, three cointegrating relationships with economic content are found: (i) the spread between the long-term and the short-term nominal interest rates, (ii) the long-term real interest rate, and (iii) a long-run demand for broad money M3. There is evidence that the determinants of M3 money demand are weakly exogenous with respect to the long-run parameters. Hence, following a general-to-specific modelling approach, a parsimonious conditional error-correction model for M3 money demand is derived which can be interpreted economically. For the conditional model, long-run and short-run parameter stability is extensively tested and not rejected. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:6:p:727-748
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2001-v16.6/
    File Function: Supporting data files and programs
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beyer, Andreas & Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F, 2001. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages 102-121, February.
    2. Bardsen, G. & Fisher, P.G., 1993. "The Importance of Being Structured," Papers 02-93, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    3. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, April.
    4. Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
    5. Alberto Cabrero & Juan L. Escrivá & Emilio Muñoz & Juan Peñalosa, 1998. "The Controllability of a Monetary Aggregate in EMU," Working Papers 9817, Banco de España.
    6. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    8. Monticelli, Carlo & Strauss-Kahn, Marc-Olivier, 1993. "European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(4), pages 345-366, December.
    9. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
    10. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
    11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-1164, December.
    13. Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.
    14. Ericsson, Neil R., 1995. "Conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 159-171, September.
    15. Carlo C. A. Winder & Martin M. G. Fase, 1998. "Wealth and the demand for money in the European union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 507-524.
    16. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356, Elsevier.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    18. Issing,Otmar & Gaspar,Vitor & Angeloni,Ignazio & Tristani,Oreste, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521783248, September.
    19. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
    20. Goldfeld, Stephen M & Sichel, Daniel E, 1987. "Money Demand: The Effects of Inflation and Alternative Adjustment Mechanisms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 511-515, August.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    22. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    23. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    2. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    4. Brand, Claus & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 3, European Central Bank.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    6. Christian Bordes & Hélène Chevrou-Séverac & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2001. "Une Europe monétaire à plusieurs vitesses ? La demande de monnaie dans les grands pays de la zone euro (1979-1999)," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 51-71.
    7. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2006. "Currency Substitution and Money Demand in Euroland," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(3), pages 275-287, September.
    8. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    10. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
    13. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1998. "The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878–1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 289-324, March.
    14. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    15. Karen Cabos & Nikolaus Siegfried, 2004. "Controlling inflation in Euroland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 549-558.
    16. Amir Kia, 2006. "Economic policies and demand for money: evidence from Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1389-1407.
    17. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    18. Rault, Christophe, 2005. "Further Results on Weak Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(2), November.
    19. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    20. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2006. "Eu-Wide Money And Currency Substitution," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 48-63, November.
    21. Amir Kia, 2002. "Interest Free and Interest-Bearing Money Demand: Policy Invariance and Stability," Working Papers 0214, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 May 2002.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. The demand for M3 in the euro area (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2001) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:6:p:727-748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.