[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v65y2019i5p2388-2411.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

“Hello Jumbo!” The Spatio-Temporal Rollout and Traffic to a New Grocery Chain After Acquisition

Author

Listed:
  • Arjen van Lin

    (Tilburg University, 5037 AB Tilburg, Netherlands)

  • Els Gijsbrechts

    (Tilburg University, 5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands)

Abstract
Grocery retailers increasingly use acquisitions to expand their presence. Such acquisitions are risky, especially when retailers decide to subsume the acquired stores under their own banner, which can take years and demands careful planning. We show how the dynamics of consumer valuations of the old and new banner affect the traffic implications of various (spatio-temporal) rollouts, and how this can be incorporated in the conversion planning. In a store-choice model with Bayesian learning, consumers update their perceptions about the old banner as its value deteriorates, and learn about the new banner through visits. Our model thus captures consumers’ responses to store conversion over time, in function of the local presence of other (own and competitive) outlets and new-banner advertising. An application to the national rollout of a Dutch EDLP player after its acquisition of a HILO chain, analyzes the shopping patterns of about 1,500 households over four years, involving over 100 store conversions. Our findings show that (i) uncertainty about the new banner dampens traffic to converted stores initially, while (ii) value deterioration of the old banner jeopardizes traffic to stores converted late, and (iii) the magnitude of these effects strongly depends on local-market characteristics, that is, competition and access to other old-banner and new-banner stores. With simulations, we show that to attract and keep customers, (i) outlets in competitive markets should not always get precedence and (ii) in locations with multiple outlets, conversions are better separated. Retailers can use these demand-side effects to their benefit in planning the rollout.The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3054 . This paper was accepted by Eric Anderson, marketing.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjen van Lin & Els Gijsbrechts, 2019. "“Hello Jumbo!” The Spatio-Temporal Rollout and Traffic to a New Grocery Chain After Acquisition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2388-2411, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:65:y:2019:i:5:p:2388-2411
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2018.3054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3054
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3054?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ting Zhu & Vishal Singh, 2009. "Spatial competition with endogenous location choices: An application to discount retailing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, March.
    2. Vroegrijk, Mark & Gijsbrechts, Els & Campo, Katia, 2016. "Battling for the Household's Category Buck: Can Economy Private Labels Defend Supermarkets Against the Hard-Discounter Threat?," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 300-318.
    3. Jae Young Lee & David R. Bell, 2013. "Neighborhood Social Capital and Social Learning for Experience Attributes of Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 960-976, November.
    4. Nitin Mehta & Surendra Rajiv & Kannan Srinivasan, 2004. "Role of Forgetting in Memory-Based Choice Decisions: A Structural Model," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 107-140, June.
    5. Jonah Berger & Alan T. Sorensen & Scott J. Rasmussen, 2010. "Positive Effects of Negative Publicity: When Negative Reviews Increase Sales," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 815-827, 09-10.
    6. Otto Toivanen & Michael Waterson, 2005. "Market Structure and Entry: Where's the Beef?," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(3), pages 680-699, Autumn.
    7. Song Lin & Juanjuan Zhang & John R. Hauser, 2015. "Learning from Experience, Simply," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Ching, Andrew T., 2010. "Consumer learning and heterogeneity: Dynamics of demand for prescription drugs after patent expiration," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 619-638, November.
    9. John H. Roberts & Glen L. Urban, 1988. "Modeling Multiattribute Utility, Risk, and Belief Dynamics for New Consumer Durable Brand Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 167-185, February.
    10. Gijsbrechts, E. & Campo, K. & Nisol, P., 2005. "Beyond Promotion-Based Store Switching : Antecedents and Consequences of Systematic Multiple-Store Shopping," Discussion Paper 2005-76, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Yi Zhao & Sha Yang & Vishal Narayan & Ying Zhao, 2013. "Modeling Consumer Learning from Online Product Reviews," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 153-169, May.
    12. Andrew Ching & Masakazu Ishihara, 2010. "The effects of detailing on prescribing decisions under quality uncertainty," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 123-165, June.
    13. Gregory S. Crawford & Matthew Shum, 2005. "Uncertainty and Learning in Pharmaceutical Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1137-1173, July.
    14. Hai Che & Tülin Erdem & T. Öncü, 2015. "Consumer learning and evolution of consumer brand preferences," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 173-202, September.
    15. Paul B. Ellickson & Stephanie Houghton & Christopher Timmins, 2013. "Estimating network economies in retail chains: a revealed preference approach," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(2), pages 169-193, June.
    16. Sangwoo Shin & Sanjog Misra & Dan Horsky, 2012. "Disentangling Preferences and Learning in Brand Choice Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(1), pages 115-137, January.
    17. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "Control Function Methods in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 420-445.
    18. Katja Seim, 2006. "An empirical model of firm entry with endogenous product‐type choices," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 619-640, September.
    19. Shun Yin Lam & Mark Vandenbosch & John Hulland & Michael Pearce, 2001. "Evaluating Promotions in Shopping Environments: Decomposing Sales Response into Attraction, Conversion, and Spending Effects," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 194-215, March.
    20. Szymanowski, Maciej & Gijsbrechts, Els, 2013. "Patterns in consumption-based learning about brand quality for consumer packaged goods," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 219-235.
    21. Sridhar Narayanan & Puneet Manchanda, 2009. "Heterogeneous Learning and the Targeting of Marketing Communication for New Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 424-441, 05-06.
    22. Meng, Chun-Lo & Schmidt, Peter, 1985. "On the Cost of Partial Observability in the Bivariate Probit Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(1), pages 71-85, February.
    23. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2017. "Empirical Models of Learning Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Developments," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Berend Wierenga & Ralf van der Lans (ed.), Handbook of Marketing Decision Models, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 223-257, Springer.
    24. Richard A. Briesch & William R. Dillon & Edward J. Fox, 2013. "Category Positioning and Store Choice: The Role of Destination Categories," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 488-509, May.
    25. Raphael Thomadsen, 2007. "Product Positioning and Competition: The Role of Location in the Fast Food Industry," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 792-804, 11-12.
    26. Nitin Mehta & Surendra Rajiv & Kannan Srinivasan, 2003. "Price Uncertainty and Consumer Search: A Structural Model of Consideration Set Formation," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 58-84, June.
    27. Jean‐Pierre Dubé & Günter J. Hitsch & Peter E. Rossi, 2010. "State dependence and alternative explanations for consumer inertia," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(3), pages 417-445, September.
    28. Matthew Osborne, 2011. "Consumer learning, switching costs, and heterogeneity: A structural examination," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 25-70, March.
    29. Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 1996. "Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20.
    30. Bart J. Bronnenberg & Carl F. Mela, 2004. "Market Roll-Out and Retailer Adoption for New Brands," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 500-518, September.
    31. Thomas J. Holmes, 2011. "The Diffusion of Wal‐Mart and Economies of Density," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 253-302, January.
    32. Zhang, Qin & Gangwar, Manish & Seetharaman, P.B., 2017. "Polygamous Store Loyalties: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 93(4), pages 477-492.
    33. Panle Jia, 2008. "What Happens When Wal-Mart Comes to Town: An Empirical Analysis of the Discount Retailing Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1263-1316, November.
    34. Hai Che & Tülin Erdem & T. Sabri Öncü, 2015. "Consumer learning and evolution of consumer brand preferences," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 173-202, September.
    35. Gijsbrechts, Els & Campo, Katia & Nisol, Patricia, 2008. "Beyond promotion-based store switching: Antecedents and patterns of systematic multiple-store shopping," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 5-21.
    36. Tülin Erdem & Michael Keane & T. Öncü & Judi Strebel, 2005. "Learning About Computers: An Analysis of Information Search and Technology Choice," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 207-247, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timothy J. Richards & Jura Liaukonytė, 2023. "Switching cost and store choice," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(1), pages 195-218, January.
    2. Els Breugelmans & Marleen Hermans & Manfred Krafft & Mirja Kroschke & Felix Lehmkuhle & Murali Mantrala, 2024. "What is happening to my nearby stores? The own- and cross-effect of a radical store transformation on existing customers," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 217-238, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Invited Paper ---Learning Models: An Assessment of Progress, Challenges, and New Developments," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 913-938, November.
    2. van Ewijk, Bernadette J. & Gijsbrechts, Els & Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict E.M., 2022. "The dark side of innovation: How new SKUs affect brand choice in the presence of consumer uncertainty and learning," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 967-987.
    3. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Learning Models: An Assessment of Progress, Challenges and New Developments," Economics Papers 2013-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    4. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2017. "Empirical Models of Learning Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Developments," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Berend Wierenga & Ralf van der Lans (ed.), Handbook of Marketing Decision Models, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 223-257, Springer.
    5. Xu, Yan, 2017. "Essays on preference formation and home production," Other publications TiSEM b028fd7e-53ba-4ff6-97eb-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Mitsukuni Nishida, 2015. "Estimating a Model of Strategic Network Choice: The Convenience-Store Industry in Okinawa," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 20-38, January.
    7. Jialie Chen & Vithala R. Rao, 2020. "A Dynamic Model of Rational Addiction with Stockpiling and Learning: An Empirical Examination of E-cigarettes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5886-5905, December.
    8. Ali Umut Guler, 2018. "Inferring the Economics of Store Density from Closures: The Starbucks Case," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 611-630, August.
    9. Song Lin & Juanjuan Zhang & John R. Hauser, 2015. "Learning from Experience, Simply," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2020. "How much do consumers know about the quality of products? Evidence from the diaper market," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 541-569, October.
    11. S. Sriram & Pradeep K. Chintagunta & Puneet Manchanda, 2015. "Service Quality Variability and Termination Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(11), pages 2739-2759, November.
    12. Shervin Shahrokhi Tehrani & Andrew T. Ching, 2024. "A Heuristic Approach to Explore: The Value of Perfect Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(5), pages 3200-3224, May.
    13. Nuno Camacho & Bas Donkers & Stefan Stremersch, 2011. "Predictably Non-Bayesian: Quantifying Salience Effects in Physician Learning About Drug Quality," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 305-320, 03-04.
    14. Szymanowski, Maciej & Gijsbrechts, Els, 2013. "Patterns in consumption-based learning about brand quality for consumer packaged goods," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 219-235.
    15. Sangwoo Shin & Sanjog Misra & Dan Horsky, 2012. "Disentangling Preferences and Learning in Brand Choice Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(1), pages 115-137, January.
    16. Jie Bai, 2016. "Melons as Lemons: Asymmetric Information, Consumer Learning and Seller Reputation," Natural Field Experiments 00540, The Field Experiments Website.
    17. Kohei Kawaguchi, 2021. "When Will Workers Follow an Algorithm? A Field Experiment with a Retail Business," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1670-1695, March.
    18. Ching, Andrew T. & Erdem, Tülin & Keane, Michael P., 2014. "A simple method to estimate the roles of learning, inventories and category consideration in consumer choice," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 60-72.
    19. Guyt, Jonne & Gijsbrechts, Els, 2018. "On consumer choice patterns and the net impact of feature promotions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 490-508.
    20. Charles Murry & Yiyi Zhou, 2020. "Consumer Search and Automobile Dealer Colocation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1909-1934, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:65:y:2019:i:5:p:2388-2411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.