[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2019q5a4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • Domenico Giannone

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and CEPR)

  • Michele Lenza

    (European Central Bank and ECARES-ULB)

  • Lucrezia Reichlin

    (London Business School and CEPR)

Abstract
This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and financial intermediation in the euro area. We establish stylized facts and study their stability during the global financial and the European sovereign debt crises. Long-term interest rates have been exceptionally high, and long-term loans and deposits exceptionally low, since the Lehman collapse. Instead, short-term interest rates and short-term loans and deposits did not show abnormal dynamics in the course of the financial and sovereign debt crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2019:q:5:a:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb19q5a4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb19q5a4.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moen, Jon R. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2000. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 145-163, March.
    2. Nason, James M. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2015. "Business Cycles And Financial Crises: The Roles Of Credit Supply And Demand Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 836-882, June.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    4. Jonas E. Arias & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2013. "Inference Based on SVARs Identied with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Working Papers 2013-24, FEDEA.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    6. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Peersman, Gert, 2011. "Macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1397, European Central Bank.
    8. David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
    9. Peersman, Gert, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili & Patrizia Passiglia, 2007. "The sectoral distribution of money supply in the Euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 627, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2020. "Business-Cycle Anatomy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3030-3070, October.
    12. Kok, Christoffer & Werner, Thomas, 2006. "Bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: a cross country comparison," Working Paper Series 580, European Central Bank.
    13. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
    15. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    16. Darracq-Paries, Matthieu & De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-34.
    17. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    18. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    19. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    20. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina, 2011. "The Countercyclical Capital Buffer of Basel III: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers wp2011_1102, CEMFI, revised Jun 2011.
    22. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2019. "Priors for the Long Run," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 565-580, April.
    23. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, September.
    24. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "What moves GNP?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 636, Econometric Society.
    25. Mojon, Benoît, 2008. "When did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 487-497, April.
    26. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 318-328, October.
    27. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    28. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    29. Fischer, B. & Lenza, M. & Pill, H. & Reichlin, L., 2009. "Monetary analysis and monetary policy in the euro area 1999-2006," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1138-1164, November.
    30. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    31. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    32. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    33. Paredes, Joan & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2009. "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Paper Series 1132, European Central Bank.
    34. Antonio Colangelo & Michele Lenza, 2013. "Cross-border banking transactions in the euro area," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 518-531, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. J. Durbin and S.J. Koopman, 2001. "An efficient and simple simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 52, Society for Computational Economics.
    36. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W. & Yamashiro, Guy M., 2007. "Bank loan portfolios and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 904-924, April.
    37. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    38. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
    2. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Zabavnik, Darja & Verbič, Miroslav, 2024. "Unravelling the credit market shocks and investment dynamics: A theoretical and empirical perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    7. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2021. "Structural scenario analysis with SVARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 798-815.
    8. Joshua C. C. Chan & Davide Pettenuzzo & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Conditional Forecasts in Large Bayesian VARs with Multiple Equality and Inequality Constraints," Papers 2407.02262, arXiv.org.
    9. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2021. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2477-2499, November.
    10. Lenza, Michele & Savoia, Ettore, 2024. "Do we need firm data to understand macroeconomic dynamics?," Working Paper Series 438, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    11. Dajčman Silvo & Kavkler Alenka & Levenko Natalia & Romih Dejan, 2022. "Spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on adult and youth unemployment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 23(1), pages 47-70, December.
    12. Elena Afanasyeva, 2020. "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross & Helene Olsen, 2024. "Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations," Working Papers No 05/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    14. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    15. Pedro J. Gutiérrez-Diez & Tibor Pál, 2023. "Monetary policy models: lessons from the Eurozone crisis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, December.
    16. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    17. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.
    18. Simone Auer & Antonio M. Conti, 2024. "Bank lending in an unprecedented monetary tightening cycle: evidence from the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 856, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjornland & Jamie L. Cross & Helene Olsen Kalstad, 2024. "Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2024-68, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 297-333, February.
    3. repec:nbb:reswpp:201411-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3589, CESifo.
    5. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic consequences of different types of credit market disturbances and non-conventional monetary policy in the euro area," 2011 Meeting Papers 333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Borrallo Egea, Fructuoso & Hierro, Luis Ángel, 2019. "Transmission of monetary policy in the US and EU in times of expansion and crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 763-783.
    8. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    9. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    10. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    11. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2019. "Restoring euro area monetary transmission: Which role for government bond rates?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 991-1021, September.
    14. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
    15. Lewis, Vivien & Roth, Markus, 2019. "The financial market effects of the ECB's asset purchase programs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 40-52.
    16. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4u5amfvji89k4pj64fk8bf01dm is not listed on IDEAS
    18. António Afonso & António Jorge Silva, 2014. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area: has it changed with the EMU? A VAR approach, with fiscal policy and financial stress considerations," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4u5amfvji89k4pj64fk8bf01dm is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Jose A. Zabala & Maria A. Prats, 2020. "The unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank: Effectiveness and transmission analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 794-809, March.
    22. Budnik, Katarzyna & Bochmann, Paul, 2017. "Capital and liquidity buffers and the resilience of the banking system in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2120, European Central Bank.
    23. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2019:q:5:a:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.