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The global slack hypothesis

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Abstract
We illustrate the analytical content of the global slack hypothesis in the context of a variant of the widely used New Open-Economy Macro model of Clarida, Gal, and Gertler (2002) under the assumptions of both producer currency pricing and local currency pricing. The model predicts that the Phillips curve for domestic CPI inflation will be flatter under most plausible parameterizations, the more important international trade is to the domestic economy. The model also predicts that foreign output gaps will matter for inflation dynamics, along with the domestic output gap. We also show that the terms of trade gap can capture foreign influences on domestic CPI inflation in an open economy as well. When the Phillips curve includes the terms of trade gap rather than the foreign output gap, the response of domestic inflation to the domestic output gap is the same as in the closed-economy case ceteris paribus. We also note the conceptual and statistical difficulties of measuring the output gaps and suggest that measurement error bias can be a serious concern in the estimation of the open-economy Phillips curve relationship with reduced-form regressions when global slack is not actually observable.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne, 2010. "The global slack hypothesis," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddst:y:2010:i:sep:n:10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Chengsi Zhang & Ke Song & Fang Wang, 2015. "Economic Globalization and Inflation in China: A Multivariate Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(3), pages 79-96, May.
    3. Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, You, 2016. "The Global Slack Hypothesis: New Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 339-348.
    4. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    5. Hany Guirguis & Vaneesha Boney Dutra & Zoe McGreevy, 2022. "The impact of global economies on US inflation: A test of the Phillips curve," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 575-592, July.
    6. Enrique Martínez-García & Diego Vilán & Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Bayesian Estimation of NOEM Models: Identification and Inference in Small Samples," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 137-199, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Mark A Wynne, 2013. "Global slack as a determinant of US inflation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 93-98, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    9. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Chen, Changsheng & Girardin, Eric & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2017. "Global slack and open economy Phillips curves – A province-level view from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 74-87.
    11. Gregor Schwerhoff & Mouhamadou Sy, 2014. "The Non-Monetary Side of the Global Disinflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 337-371, April.
    12. Aleksandra Hałka & Jacek Kotłowski, 2017. "Global or Domestic? Which Shocks Drive Inflation in European Small Open Economies?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 1812-1835, August.
    13. Martínez-García, Enrique, 2021. "Get the lowdown: The international side of the fall in the U.S. natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Dur, Ayşe & Martínez García, Enrique, 2020. "Mind the gap!—A monetarist view of the open-economy Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

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