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Does the crime rate respond symmetrically or asymmetrically to changes in governance quality and macroeconomic variables? The application of linear and non-linear ARDL

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul Saqib
  • Fouzia Yasmin
  • Ihtisham Hussain
Abstract
Purpose - Socioeconomic development needs quality governance to provide and protect property rights and other economic means. In this regard, the current study examines the symmetric and asymmetric effect of composite governance index, unemployment rate (UR) and consumer price index on the crime rate (CR) in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach - The current study uses time series data (1996–2020) on CR, composite governance index, UR and consumer price index. In this study, the authors first constructed a composite governance index from six governance indicators using the principal component analysis (PCA) method. After that, the short-run and long-run symmetric and asymmetric effects were estimated through linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, respectively. Findings - The authors found short-run and long-run symmetric and asymmetric effects of governance, unemployment and consumer prices (CPI) on the CR in Pakistan. For asymmetric effects, the findings show that high-quality governance diminishes and poor governance accelerates committed crimes in Pakistan. Interestingly, the asymmetric unemployment effect suggests that criminal behavior diminishes when people find job opportunities and do not adopt criminal behavior even if people lose employment. In other words, if unemployment decreases CR will fall, and when unemployment increases, the CR may not increase. Lastly, rising product prices lead to criminal behavior, while falling prices do not help to diminish the CR in Pakistan. Originality/value - The study provides the first empirical evidence of symmetric and asymmetric responses of CR toward composite governance index, UR and consumer price index. Peer review - The peer review history for this article is available at:https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0625

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Saqib & Fouzia Yasmin & Ihtisham Hussain, 2023. "Does the crime rate respond symmetrically or asymmetrically to changes in governance quality and macroeconomic variables? The application of linear and non-linear ARDL," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(12), pages 1756-1776, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:ijse-09-2022-0625
    DOI: 10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0625
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