[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v442y2016icp359-372.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Activist model of political party growth

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffs, Rebecca A.
  • Hayward, John
  • Roach, Paul A.
  • Wyburn, John
Abstract
The membership of British political parties has a direct influence on their political effectiveness. This paper applies the mathematics of epidemiology to the analysis of the growth and decline of such memberships. The party members are divided into activists and inactive members, where all activists influence the quality of party recruitment, but only a subset of activists recruit and thus govern numerical growth. The activists recruit for only a limited period, which acts as a restriction on further party growth. This Limited Activist model is applied to post-war and recent memberships of the Labour, Scottish National and Conservative parties. The model reproduces data trends, and relates realistically to historical narratives. It is concluded that the political parties analysed are not in danger of extinction but experience repeated periods of growth and decline in membership, albeit at lower numbers than in the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffs, Rebecca A. & Hayward, John & Roach, Paul A. & Wyburn, John, 2016. "Activist model of political party growth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 359-372.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:442:y:2016:i:c:p:359-372
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.09.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437115007281
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2015.09.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ausloos, Marcel, 2012. "Econophysics of a religious cult: The Antoinists in Belgium [1920–2000]," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3190-3197.
    2. Nizamani, Sarwat & Memon, Nasrullah & Galam, Serge, 2014. "From public outrage to the burst of public violence: An epidemic-like model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 416(C), pages 620-630.
    3. Bettencourt, Luís M.A. & Cintrón-Arias, Ariel & Kaiser, David I. & Castillo-Chávez, Carlos, 2006. "The power of a good idea: Quantitative modeling of the spread of ideas from epidemiological models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 513-536.
    4. Daniel M. Abrams & Steven H. Strogatz, 2003. "Modelling the dynamics of language death," Nature, Nature, vol. 424(6951), pages 900-900, August.
    5. Vitanov, Nikolay K. & Dimitrova, Zlatinka I. & Ausloos, Marcel, 2010. "Verhulst–Lotka–Volterra (VLV) model of ideological struggle," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4970-4980.
    6. Qian, Shen & Liu, Yijun & Galam, Serge, 2015. "Activeness as a key to counter democratic balance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 187-196.
    7. Ausloos, M. & Petroni, F., 2009. "Statistical dynamics of religion evolutions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(20), pages 4438-4444.
    8. McCartney, Mark & Glass, David H., 2015. "A three-state dynamical model for religious affiliation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 145-152.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Santoprete, Manuele, 2019. "Countering violent extremism: A mathematical model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 358(C), pages 314-329.
    2. Santoprete, Manuele & Xu, Fei, 2018. "Global stability in a mathematical model of de-radicalization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 151-161.
    3. Vicky Chuqiao Yang & Tamara van der Does & Henrik Olsson, 2021. "Falling through the cracks: Modeling the formation of social category boundaries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-11, March.
    4. Wang, Chaoqian, 2020. "Dynamics of conflicting opinions considering rationality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    5. Skaza, Jonathan & Blais, Brian, 2017. "Modeling the infectiousness of Twitter hashtags," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 289-296.
    6. Stefani, Silvana & Ausloos, Marcel & González-Concepción, Concepción & Sonubi, Adeyemi & Gil-Fariña, Ma Candelaria & Pestano-Gabino, Celina & Moretto, Enrico, 2021. "Competing or collaborating, with no symmetrical behaviour: Leadership opportunities and winning strategies under stability," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 489-504.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCartney, Mark & Glass, David H., 2015. "The dynamics of coupled logistic social groups," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 141-154.
    2. McCartney, Mark & Glass, David H., 2015. "A three-state dynamical model for religious affiliation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 145-152.
    3. Vallejo, Andrés & Marti, Arturo C., 2021. "Propagation of radical ideas in societies with memory: Competition between radical strength and social cohesion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Wang, Chaoqian, 2020. "Dynamics of conflicting opinions considering rationality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    5. Mir, T.A., 2014. "The Benford law behavior of the religious activity data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 1-9.
    6. Mir, T.A., 2012. "The law of the leading digits and the world religions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 792-798.
    7. Hu, Yuhan & Pan, Qiuhui & Hou, Wenbing & He, Mingfeng, 2018. "Rumor spreading model considering the proportion of wisemen in the crowd," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 1084-1094.
    8. Serge Galam & Marco Alberto Javarone, 2016. "Modeling Radicalization Phenomena in Heterogeneous Populations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, May.
    9. Crokidakis, Nuno, 2024. "Nonequilibrium phase transitions and absorbing states in a model for the dynamics of religious affiliation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 643(C).
    10. De Martino, Giuseppe & Spina, Serena, 2015. "Exploiting the time-dynamics of news diffusion on the Internet through a generalized Susceptible–Infected model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 634-644.
    11. Bakalis, Evangelos & Galani, Alexandra, 2012. "Modeling language evolution: Aromanian, an endangered language in Greece," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4963-4969.
    12. Heather Williams & Andrew Scharf & Anna R. Ryba & D. Ryan Norris & Daniel J. Mennill & Amy E. M. Newman & Stéphanie M. Doucet & Julie C. Blackwood, 2022. "Cumulative cultural evolution and mechanisms for cultural selection in wild bird songs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Crokidakis, Nuno & Sigaud, Lucas, 2021. "Modeling the evolution of drinking behavior: A Statistical Physics perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    14. Wang, Haiying & Moore, Jack Murdoch & Wang, Jun & Small, Michael, 2021. "The distinct roles of initial transmission and retransmission in the persistence of knowledge in complex networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    15. Zhao, Jiuhua & Liu, Qipeng & Wang, Lin & Wang, Xiaofan, 2017. "Competitive seeds-selection in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 240-248.
    16. Liancheng Wang & Min Wang, 2024. "Bifurcation Analysis for an OSN Model with Two Delays," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, April.
    17. Ayan Sengupta & Soham Das & Md. Shad Akhtar & Tanmoy Chakraborty, 2024. "Social, economic, and demographic factors drive the emergence of Hinglish code-mixing on social media," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Li, Jingjing & Zhang, Yumei & Man, Jiayu & Zhou, Yun & Wu, Xiaojun, 2017. "SISL and SIRL: Two knowledge dissemination models with leader nodes on cooperative learning networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 740-749.
    19. Vicky Chuqiao Yang & Tamara van der Does & Henrik Olsson, 2021. "Falling through the cracks: Modeling the formation of social category boundaries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-11, March.
    20. Yao, Yao & Xiao, Xi & Zhang, Chengping & Dou, Changsheng & Xia, Shutao, 2019. "Stability analysis of an SDILR model based on rumor recurrence on social media," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:442:y:2016:i:c:p:359-372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.