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JUE Insight: How much does COVID-19 increase with mobility? Evidence from New York and four other U.S. cities

Author

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  • Glaeser, Edward L.
  • Gorback, Caitlin
  • Redding, Stephen J.
Abstract
How effective are restrictions on mobility in limiting COVID-19 spread? Using zip code data across five U.S. cities, we estimate that total cases per capita decrease by 19% for every ten percentage point fall in mobility. Addressing endogeneity concerns, we instrument for travel by residential teleworkable and essential shares and find a 25% decline in cases per capita. Using panel data for NYC with week and zip code fixed effects, we estimate a decline of 30%. We find substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity; east coast cities have stronger effects, with the largest for NYC in the pandemic’s early stages.

Suggested Citation

  • Glaeser, Edward L. & Gorback, Caitlin & Redding, Stephen J., 2022. "JUE Insight: How much does COVID-19 increase with mobility? Evidence from New York and four other U.S. cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:127:y:2022:i:c:s0094119020300632
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2020.103292
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2024. "Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1981, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Luciana C. Fiorini & Wilfredo L. Maldonado, 2022. "Labor Supply in Pandemics Environments: An Aggregative Games Approach," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    3. Gilles Duranton & Jessie Handbury, 2023. "COVID and Cities, Thus Far," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 29(2), pages 6-52, October.
    4. Li, Jingjing & Zhuang, Chu & Zou, Wei, 2024. "A tale of lockdown policies on the transmission of COVID-19 within and between Chinese cities: A study based on heterogeneous treatment effect," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Chen, Kong-Pin & Yang, Jui-Chung & Yang, Tzu-Ting, 2022. "JUE insight: Demand for transportation and spatial pattern of economic activity during the pandemic," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Kebin Deng & Zhong Ding & Xu Liu, 2023. "Clan loyalty and COVID‐19 diffusion: Evidence from China," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 910-938, April.
    7. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    8. Denis Fernandes Alves & Raul da Mota Silveira Neto & André Luis Squarize Chagas & Tatiane Almeida De Menezes, 2024. "Contagion by COVID-19 in the cities: commuting distance and residential density matter?," EconomiA, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(2), pages 189-209, February.
    9. Deng, Yongheng & Meng, Lina & Zhou, Yinggang, 2022. "The effectiveness and costs of nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 containment: A border discontinuous difference-in-difference approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    12. Lei Ding & Jackelyn Hwang, 2022. "Has COVID Reversed Gentrification in Major U.S. Cities? An Empirical Examination of Residential Mobility in Gentrifying Neighborhoods During the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers 22-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Coven, Joshua & Gupta, Arpit & Yao, Iris, 2023. "JUE Insight: Urban flight seeded the COVID-19 pandemic across the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Matthias Flückiger & Markus Ludwig, 2023. "Spatial networks and the spread of COVID-19: results and policy implications from Germany," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 43(1), pages 1-27, April.
    15. Caria, Andrea & Delogu, Marco & Meleddu, Marta & Sotgiu, Giovanni, 2024. "People inflows as a pandemic trigger: Evidence from a quasi-experimental study," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Almagro, Milena & Coven, Joshua & Gupta, Arpit & Orane-Hutchinson, Angelo, 2023. "Disparities in COVID-19 risk exposure: Evidence from geolocation data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Richard Florida & Todd Gabe, 2023. "COVID-19, the New Urban Crisis, and Cities: How COVID-19 Compounds the Influence of Economic Segregation and Inequality on Metropolitan Economic Performance," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 37(4), pages 328-348, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Mobility; Contagion; Telework; Essential workers; Public transportation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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