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Do investors put their money where their mouth is? Stock market expectations and investing behavior

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  • Merkle, Christoph
  • Weber, Martin
Abstract
To understand how real investors use their beliefs and preferences in investing decisions, we examine a panel survey of self-directed online investors at a UK bank. The survey asks for return expectations, risk expectations, and risk tolerance of these investors in three-month intervals between 2008 and 2010. We combine the survey data with investors’ actual trading data and portfolio holdings. We find that investor beliefs have little predictive power for immediate trading behavior. The exception is a positive effect of increases in return expectation on buying activity. Portfolio risk levels and changes are more systematically related to return and risk expectations. In line with financial theory, risk taking increases with return expectations and decreases with risk expectations. In response to their expectations, investors also adjust the riskiness of assets they trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2014. "Do investors put their money where their mouth is? Stock market expectations and investing behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 372-386.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:372-386
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.03.042
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cardak, Buly A. & Martin, Vance L., 2023. "Household willingness to take financial risk: Stockmarket movements and life‐cycle effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
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    4. Raslan Alzuabi & Sarah Brown & Mark N. Harris & Karl Taylor, 2024. "Modelling the composition of household portfolios: A latent class approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 243-275, February.
    5. D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy & Merli, Maxime, 2021. "Do retail investors bite off more than they can chew? A close look at their return objectives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 879-902.
    6. Abuzayed, Bana & Bouri, Elie & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Jalkh, Naji, 2021. "Systemic risk spillover across global and country stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 180-197.
    7. Rüdiger Weber & Annika Weber & Christine Laudenbach & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 21-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    8. Kiesl-Reiter, Sarah, 2024. "Subjective Expectations about Joint Return Distributions," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302423, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. John Ameriks & Gábor Kézdi & Minjoon Lee & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2020. "Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 633-646, July.
    10. Sara Jonsson & Inga-Lill Söderberg, 2018. "Investigating explanatory theories on laypeople’s risk perception of personal economic collapse in a bank crisis – the Cyprus case," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 763-779, June.
    11. Kempf, Alexander & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra & Merkle, Christoph, 2009. "Low risk and high return - how emotions shape expectations on the stock market," CFR Working Papers 09-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    12. Egan, Daniel & Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2014. "Second-order beliefs and the individual investor," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 652-666.
    13. Cardak, Buly A. & Martin, Vance L. & McAllister, Richard, 2019. "The effects of the Global Financial Crisis on the stock holding decisions of Australian households," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. K. Jeremy Ko & Zhijian (James) Huang, 2012. "Persistence of Beliefs in an Investment Experiment," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-34.
    15. Baeckström, Ylva & Marsh, Ian W. & Silvester, Joanne, 2021. "Financial advice and gender: Wealthy individual investors in the UK," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim & Veld, Chris & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia, 2016. "Past returns and the perceived Sharpe ratio," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 149-167.
    17. Dong, Zibing & Li, Yanshuang & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on global stock sectors: Evidence from time-varying connectedness and asymmetric nexus analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Merkle, Christoph, 2018. "The curious case of negative volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-108.
    19. Merkle, Christoph & Egan, Daniel P. & Davies, Greg B., 2015. "Investor happiness," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 167-186.
    20. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    21. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
    22. Ingar Haaland & Ole-Andreas Elvik Næss & Ingar K. Haaland, 2023. "Misperceived Returns to Active Investing," CESifo Working Paper Series 10257, CESifo.
    23. Heo, Wookjae & Rabbani, Abed & Grable, John E., 2021. "An Evaluation of the Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Risk Tolerance of Financial Decision Makers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    24. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    25. Riccardo Reith & Maximilian Fischer & Bettina Lis, 2020. "Explaining the intention to use social trading platforms: an empirical investigation," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 427-460, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations; Beliefs; Risk; Return; Trading behavior; Portfolio choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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