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The fast and the furious--Stock returns and CDS of financial institutions under stress

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  • Trutwein, Patrick
  • Schiereck, Dirk
Abstract
This paper examines the link between equity and credit markets for major financial institutions during times of heightened stress and increased default risk. We focus on sizeable US firms, which either failed or required substantial government support during 2008. Our examination of daily lead-lag relationships of 5-year credit default swaps, equity prices, and implied option volatility shows that equity and credit markets become more integrated during times of heightened stress and that fast equity price changes lead furious CDS spread changes. We confirm a strong positive link between changes in CDS spreads and in option implied volatility and find that adjustments take place simultaneously. Our results point at a regime dependent relationship between equity and credit markets and have practical relevance for capital markets regulation, e.g. the ban on short selling of financial stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Trutwein, Patrick & Schiereck, Dirk, 2011. "The fast and the furious--Stock returns and CDS of financial institutions under stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 157-175, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:21:y:2011:i:2:p:157-175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    3. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2020. "Sovereign Risk, Cross-Currency Basis and Equity Markets: A Cross-Market Dynamic Interaction," MPRA Paper 100946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Griffin, Paul A. & Lont, David H., 2018. "Game changer? The impact of the VW emission-cheating scandal on the interrelation between large automakers’ equity and credit markets," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-196.
    5. Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2016. "Market integration and efficiency of CDS and equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-229.
    6. Gheorghe HURDUZEU & Radu Cristian MUSETESCU & Georgeta Madalina MEGHISAN, 2015. "Financial Market Reaction To Changes In The Volatilities Of Cds Returns," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 152-165, September.
    7. Kiesel, F., 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81247, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    8. Gao, Feng & Li, Yubin & Wang, Xinjie & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2021. "Corporate social responsibility and the term structure of CDS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Wang, Ruolin & Basu, Anup & Clements, Adam, 2023. "Are credit default swaps still a sideshow? How information flow between equity and CDS markets has changed since the financial crisis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Balcilar, Mehmet & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Distribution specific dependence and causality between industry-level U.S. credit and stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-133.
    11. Laura Ballester & Ana González-Urteaga, 2020. "Is There a Connection between Sovereign CDS Spreads and the Stock Market? Evidence for European and US Returns and Volatilities," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-34, September.
    12. Kizys, Renatas & Paltalidis, Nikos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2016. "The quest for banking stability in the euro area: The role of government interventions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 111-133.
    13. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "How do sovereign risk, equity and foreign exchange derivatives markets interact?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 58-78.
    14. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "Is Thailand’s credit default swap market linked to bond and stock markets? Evidence from the term structure of credit spreads," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 324-341.
    15. Christian Manicaro, 2023. "Sectoral and Regional Volatility Connectedness: The Case of CDS Spreads and Equities," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(4), pages 1-8, April.
    16. Sinan Esen & Feyyaz Zeren & Halil Şimdi, 2015. "CDS and Stock Market: Panel Evidence Under Cross-Section Dependency," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 31-46.
    17. Veronika Kajurova & Jana Hvozdenska, 2016. "Linkages between CDS, bond and stock markets: Evidence from Europe," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-63, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    18. Kiesel, Florian, 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81265, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

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