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An investigation of log prices in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Author

Listed:
  • Reimer, Jeffrey J.
Abstract
Log prices can be volatile and hard to predict from month to month. For those tasked with managing timberland investments and the marketing of logs, however, short run predictions of price could be useful. This study shows that Douglas-fir log prices can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using only a small amount of readily available macro-economic information. For example, nearly half of the variation in log prices over time can be predicted using the number of housing permits issued in a month. Information about exchange rates and mortgage rates provide further refinement of estimates. An attribution experiment shows that expansionary U.S. monetary policy over the last decade has raised log prices by about 5% above what they otherwise would have been. A strengthening U.S. dollar increased the supply of Canadian softwood in U.S. markets, however, and had a depressing effect on U.S. log prices. The results illustrate how policies enacted in locations far from forest-dependent communities can nonetheless have outsized impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2021. "An investigation of log prices in the U.S. Pacific Northwest," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:126:y:2021:i:c:s1389934121000435
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102437
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Surabhi Mittal & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2008. "Would Indian farmers benefit from liberalization of world cotton and sugar markets?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(3), pages 301-312, May.
    2. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
    3. Robert K. Kaufmann & Stephane Dees & Pavlos Karadeloglou & Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 25(4), pages 67-90, October.
    4. Prasanna, P.H.S.N. & Gunaratne, L.H.P & Withana, W.D.R.S., 2004. "Economic Analysis of Paddy Threshing Methods," Sri Lankan Journal of Agricultural Economics, Sri Lanka Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA), vol. 6, pages 1-17.
    5. Schlosser, William E., 2020. "Real price appreciation forecast tool: Two delivered log market price cycles in the Puget Sound markets of western Washington, USA, from 1992 through 2019," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Weerasooriya, Senal, 2019. "Macroeconomic Impacts of U.S. Farm and Nutrition Programs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand; Douglas-fir; Economic policy; Oregon; Price forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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