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The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk

Author

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  • Andrieș, Alin Marius
  • Ongena, Steven
  • Sprincean, Nicu
Abstract
Governments around the world are tackling the COVID-19 pandemic with a mix of public health, fiscal, macroprudential, monetary, and/or market-based policies. We assess the impact of the pandemic in Europe on sovereign CDS spreads using an event study methodology. We find that a higher number of cases and deaths and public health containment responses significantly increase the uncertainty among investors in European government bonds. Other governmental policies magnify the effect in the short run as supply chains are disrupted. Moreover, an increased debt-to-GDP ratio significantly boosts the cumulative abnormal change of CDS spreads, which indicates that investors are concerned about countries that are too indebted and thus have a limited capacity to intervene and provide fiscal stimuli and emergency fiscal packages to businesses and households.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821001431
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101527
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    21. Moreno Ibáñez, Antonio & Ongena, Steven & Ventula Veghazy, Alexia & Wagner, Alexander F., 2022. "“Long GFC†? The Global Financial Crisis, Health Care, and COVID-19 Deaths," CEPR Discussion Papers 15900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Maria Czech, 2022. "The Impact of Covid-19 Dynamics on SCDS Spreads in Selected CEE Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 254-271.
    23. Foglia, Matteo & Pacelli, Vincenzo & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2023. "Systemic risk propagation in the Eurozone: A multilayer network approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 332-346.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; Country risk; Sovereign bonds; Public health interventions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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