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Strategic obscurity in the forecasting of disasters

Author

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  • Aoyagi, Masaki
Abstract
A principal acquires information about a shock and then discloses it to an agent. After the disclosure, the principal and agent each decide whether to take costly preparatory actions that yield mutual benefits but only when the shock strikes. The principal maximizes his expected payoff by ex ante committing to the quality of his information, and the disclosure rule. We show that even when the acquisition of perfect information is costless, the principal may optimally acquire imperfect information when his own action eliminates the agent's incentive to take action against the risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Aoyagi, Masaki, 2014. "Strategic obscurity in the forecasting of disasters," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 485-496.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:87:y:2014:i:c:p:485-496
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2014.07.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Matysková, Ludmila & Montes, Alfonso, 2023. "Bayesian persuasion with costly information acquisition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Ludmila Matyskova, 2018. "Bayesian Persuasion with Costly Information Acquisition," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp614, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous information; Disclosure; Signal quality; Transparency; Specific investment; Strategic ignorance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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