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Terrorismus und internationaler Handel: Probleme und Ergebnisse empirischer Untersuchungen

Author

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  • Volker Nitsch
Abstract
This short essay discusses the costs of terrorism on international trade. While there is little disagreement that insecurity and violence are often serious impediments to economic activity, the effects of terrorism have been discussed extensively in the recent literature. Terrorist attacks are often isolated events; they rarely aim to cause direct destruction; they use a broad range of methods. However, when examining (and quantifying) the effects of terrorism on trade, a broad variety of methodological problems emerge. Potential issues range from gathering and codifying data on terrorist activity to problems of endogeneity. In view of these difficulties in econometric analysis, it is remarkable that a number of studies with varying research designs consistently find a significant negative relationship between terrorism and international trade. In diesem kurzen Aufsatz werden die Kosten des Terrors für den internationalen Handel diskutiert. Unstrittig ist, dass Unsicherheit und Gewalt die wirtschaftliche Aktivität lähmen können. Ob auch terroristische Aktionen, die häufig isolierte Ereignisse darstellen, selten auf direkte Zerstörung zielen und sich einer Vielzahl von unterschiedlichen Methoden bedienen, die Wirtschaftsaktivität spürbar beeinflussen, ist zuletzt zum Gegenstand zahlreicher Untersuchungen geworden. Bei der Identifikation (und insbesondere der Quantifizierung) der Auswirkungen von Terrorismus auf den Handel treten allerdings eine Reihe methodischer Probleme auf; die Bandbreite der Schwierigkeiten reicht von der Erfassung und Kodifizierung terroristischer Aktivitäten bis hin zu möglichen Endogenitätsproblemen. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser ökonometrischen Schätzprobleme scheint es bemerkenswert, dass eine Reihe von Studien mit unterschiedlichem Untersuchungsdesign einen signifikanten negativen Zusammenhang zwischen Terrorismus und Handel dokumentieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Terrorismus und internationaler Handel: Probleme und Ergebnisse empirischer Untersuchungen," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 41-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-4-4
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.78.4.41
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; conflict; trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General

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