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Dating the Great Divergence

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  • Goldstone, Jack A.
Abstract
New data on Dutch and British GDP/capita show that at no time prior to 1750, perhaps not before 1800, did the leading countries of northwestern Europe enjoy sustained strong growth in GDP/capita. Such growth in income per head as did occur was highly episodic, concentrated in a few decades and then followed by long periods of stagnation of income per head. Moreover, at no time before 1800 did the leading economies of northwestern Europe reach levels of income per capita much different from peak levels achieved hundreds of years earlier in the most developed regions of Italy and China. When the Industrial Revolution began in Britain, it was not preceded by patterns of pre-modern income growth that were in any way remarkable, neither by sustained prior growth in real incomes nor exceptional levels of income per head. The Great Divergence, seen as the onset of sustained increases in income per head despite strong population growth, and achievement of incomes beyond pre-modern peaks, was a late occurrence, arising only from 1800.

Suggested Citation

  • Goldstone, Jack A., 2021. "Dating the Great Divergence," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 266-285, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jglhis:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:266-285_6
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    Cited by:

    1. Broadberry, Stephen & Guan, Hanhui, 2022. "Regional variation of GDP per head within China, 1080-1850: Implications for the Great Divergence debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 17457, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Anthony Edo & Jacques Melitz, 2023. "Wealth and shifting demand pressures on the price level in England after the Black Death," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(1), pages 91-124, January.
    3. Anthony Edo & Jacques Melitz, 2024. "The Controversy over European Inflation in 1500–1700: Precious Metals or Population? The English Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 659-685, July.

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