[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecp/v57y2018i4p446-455.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural Breaks and Energy Consumption in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: Are Random Shocks Transitory or Permanent?

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Osman
  • Ariful Hoque
  • Geoffrey Gachino
Abstract
The impact of random shocks on the energy consumption of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is essentially an empirical question which cannot be determined a priori without properly testing the integration properties of this variable. To this aim, we perform testing the unit root properties of this variable using both traditional unit root tests and the recently developed technique of the Fourier transformation function or simply known as the FADF test developed by Enders and Lee (2012), which not only takes into account for the existence of structural breaks but also that of non‐linearity in the energy consumption series of these countries. The results from the traditional unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of non‐stationarity while that of the Fourier ADF unit root test which is more powerful has strongly rejected the null hypothesis of unit root for all the countries except Bahrain and Qatar. In sum, the results from this test indicate that the energy consumption variables of these countries are characterised by a stationary process and this has important policy implications. This suggests that these random shocks will have only a transitory effect on the energy consumption per capita of these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Osman & Ariful Hoque & Geoffrey Gachino, 2018. "Structural Breaks and Energy Consumption in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: Are Random Shocks Transitory or Permanent?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 446-455, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:57:y:2018:i:4:p:446-455
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12124
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8454.12124?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
    2. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Narayan, Seema & Popp, Stephan, 2010. "Energy consumption at the state level: The unit root null hypothesis from Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1953-1962, June.
    3. Osman, Mohamed & Gachino, Geoffrey & Hoque, Ariful, 2016. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in the GCC countries: Panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 318-327.
    4. Junsoo Lee & Walter Enders, 2004. "Testing for a unit-root with a nonlinear Fourier function," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 457, Econometric Society.
    5. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    6. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Does energy consumption by the US electric power sector exhibit long memory behavior?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7512-7518, November.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
    8. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2007. "Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3526-3540, June.
    9. Cowan, Wendy N. & Chang, Tsangyao & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "The nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 359-368.
    10. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    11. Apergis, Nicholas & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Are shocks to natural gas consumption temporary or permanent? Evidence from a panel of U.S. states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4734-4736, August.
    12. Hakan Kum, 2012. "Are Fluctuations in Energy Consumption Transitory or Permanent? Evidence From a Panel of East Asia & Pacific Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 92-96.
    13. Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 358-364.
    14. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    15. Hasanov, Mübariz & Telatar, Erdinc, 2011. "A re-examination of stationarity of energy consumption: Evidence from new unit root tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7726-7738.
    16. Suleyman Bolat & Murat Belke & Necati Celik, 2013. "Mean Reverting Behavior of Energy Consumption: Evidence from Selected MENA Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 315-320.
    17. Kim, Young Se, 2015. "Electricity consumption and economic development: Are countries converging to a common trend?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 192-202.
    18. Emmanuel Anoruo & William R. DiPietro, 2014. "Convergence in Per Capita Energy Consumption among African Countries: Evidence from Sequential Panel Selection Method," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 568-577.
    19. Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 371-378.
    20. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    21. Kyung‐So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit‐root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, June.
    22. Payne, James E., 2010. "A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 723-731, March.
    23. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "Structural breaks and petroleum consumption in US states: Are shocks transitory or permanent?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6375-6378, October.
    24. Apergis, Nicholas & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Are fluctuations in coal consumption transitory or permanent? Evidence from a panel of US states," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2424-2426, July.
    25. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    26. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    27. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, August.
    28. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2012. "Long memory and disaggregated energy consumption: Evidence from fossils, coal and electricity retail in the U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1082-1087.
    29. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in Malaysia permanent or temporary? Evidence from LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 319-328.
    30. Yaya, OlaOluwa Simon & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Carcel, Hector, 2015. "Testing fractional persistence and non-linearities in the natural gas market: An application of non-linear deterministic terms based on Chebyshev polynomials in time," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 240-245.
    31. Bhattacharya, Mita & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Ozturk, Ilhan & Bhattacharya, Sankar, 2016. "The effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from top 38 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 733-741.
    32. Wang, S.S. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Wang, Q.W., 2011. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4870-4875, September.
    33. Aslan, Alper & Kum, Hakan, 2011. "The stationary of energy consumption for Turkish disaggregate data by employing linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4256-4258.
    34. Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    2. Bozoklu, Seref & Yilanci, Veli & Gorus, Muhammed Sehid, 2020. "Persistence in per capita energy consumption: A fractional integration approach with a Fourier function," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Yifei Cai & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Are shocks to natural gas consumption transitory or permanent? A more powerful panel unit root test on the G7 countries," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 111-120, May.
    4. Kassouri, Yacouba, 2022. "Boom-bust cycles in oil consumption: The role of explosive bubbles and asymmetric adjustments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Manuel Monge, 2019. "Energy Consumption in the GCC Countries: Evidence on Persistence," CESifo Working Paper Series 7470, CESifo.
    2. Ozcan, Burcu & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "A new approach to energy consumption per capita stationarity: Evidence from OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 332-344.
    3. Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 371-378.
    4. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 102-115.
    5. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 351-358.
    6. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    8. Yilanci, Veli & Tunali, Çiğdem Börke, 2014. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption transitory or permanent? Evidence from a Fourier LM unit root test," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 20-25.
    9. Wang, Yuan & Li, Li & Kubota, Jumpei & Zhu, Xiaodong & Lu, Genfa, 2016. "Are fluctuations in Japan’s consumption of non-fossil energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 187-196.
    10. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Applied Econometrics and a Decade of Energy Economics Research," Monash Economics Working Papers 21-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    11. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in US production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 483-488.
    12. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2013. "U.S. Disaggregated renewable energy consumption: Persistence and long memory behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 425-432.
    13. Fallahi, Firouz & Karimi, Mohammad & Voia, Marcel-Cristian, 2016. "Persistence in world energy consumption: Evidence from subsampling confidence intervals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 175-183.
    14. Cai, Yifei & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "Fourier quantile unit root test for the integrational properties of clean energy consumption in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 324-334.
    15. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Will policies to promote renewable electricity generation be effective? Evidence from panel stationarity and unit root tests for 115 countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 371-379.
    16. Meng, Ming & Payne, James E. & Lee, Junsoo, 2013. "Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 536-545.
    17. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Wahab, Bashir A. & Adeboye, Olusegun S., 2020. "Stationarity of prices of precious and industrial metals using recent unit root methods: Implications for markets’ efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in Malaysia permanent or temporary? Evidence from LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 319-328.
    20. Erdogan, Sinan & Akalin, Guray & Oypan, Oguz, 2020. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption transitory or permanent in Turkey? New evidence from fourier panel KPSS test," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    21. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:57:y:2018:i:4:p:446-455. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0004-900X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.