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The impact of COVID‐19 on the grains and oilseeds sector: 12 months later

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  • Derek Gerald Brewin
Abstract
Brewin (2020) was optimistic about the fate of the Canadian grains and oilseeds sector in 2020 as the COVID‐19 pandemic descended on the world. The sector did generate a large crop and, towards the end of 2020, saw a lift in prices. This contributed to record farm income in Canada in 2020. The pace of grain and oilseed exports in Canada and ethanol demand in the east were affected by COVID‐19, but the forecast of a “near normal” 2020 was relatively accurate. Production and prices stayed on track, largely because the world did not impose significant new barriers to trade in cereals and oilseeds and because these sectors have distanced labor in virtually every step of the supply chain which protected these markets from this pandemic. The dominant price factor for the sector remains global demand that had been growing before 2020 relative to the pace of production and may have been stimulated by deficit budgets around the world. Compared to the tight global stocks, COVID‐19 had a minor impact on grain prices which led to steady production worldwide and in Canada. We are still waiting for more evidence to assess the role of federal coordination in the success of the grains and oilseed sector in 2020, but Canada's past participation in trade and safety protocols based on science allowed the grains and oilseed sector in Canada to earn a very good income in 2020. Brewin (2020) était optimiste quant au sort du secteur canadien des céréales et des oléagineux en 2020 alors que la pandémie COVID‐19 s'abattait sur le monde. Le secteur a généré une récolte importante et, vers la fin de 2020, a connu une hausse des prix. Cela a contribué à un revenu agricole record au Canada en 2020. Le rythme des exportations de céréales et d'oléagineux au Canada et la perte de la demande d'éthanol dans l'est ont été touchés par le COVID‐19, mais la prévision d'une année 2020 «presque normale» était relativement précise. La production et les prix sont restés sur la bonne voie, en grande partie parce que le monde n'a pas imposé de nouvelles barrières importantes au commerce des céréales et des oléagineux et parce que ces secteurs ont une main‐d'œuvre distancée à pratiquement chaque étape de la chaîne d'approvisionnement ce qui a protégé ces marchés de cette pandémie. Le facteur de prix dominant pour le secteur reste la demande mondiale qui avait augmenté avant 2020 par rapport au rythme de production et qui a peut‐être été stimulée par des déficits budgétaires dans plusieurs régions du monde. Comparée aux stocks mondiaux serrés, la COVID‐19 a eu un impact mineur sur les prix des céréales, ce qui a conduit à une production stable dans le monde et au Canada. Nous attendons toujours plus d’évidences pour évaluer le rôle de la coordination fédérale dans le succès du secteur des céréales et des oléagineux en 2020, mais la participation passée du Canada à des protocoles de commerce et de sécurité fondés sur la science a permis au secteur des céréales et des oléagineux au Canada de gagner de très bon revenu en 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek Gerald Brewin, 2021. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the grains and oilseeds sector: 12 months later," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 197-202, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:69:y:2021:i:2:p:197-202
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alfons Weersink & Mike von Massow & Brendan McDougall, 2020. "Economic thoughts on the potential implications of COVID‐19 on the Canadian dairy and poultry sectors," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 195-200, June.
    2. Alan P. Ker & Ryan Cardwell, 2020. "Introduction to the special issue on COVID‐19 and the Canadian agriculture and food sectors: Thoughts from the pandemic onset," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 139-142, June.
    3. Ryan Cardwell & Derek G. Brewin, 2019. "Blackleg or blackmail? Economics of the Canada–China canola trade dispute," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 67(3), pages 251-260, September.
    4. Richard Barichello, 2020. "The COVID‐19 pandemic: Anticipating its effects on Canada's agricultural trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 219-224, June.
    5. James Vercammen, 2020. "Information‐rich wheat markets in the early days of COVID‐19," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 177-184, June.
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    1. Alan P. Ker & Ryan Cardwell, 2021. "Introduction to the special issue on COVID‐19 and the Canadian agriculture and food sectors: Thoughts one year into the pandemic," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 155-159, June.

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