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A counterfactual experiment about the eradication of cattle diseases on beef trade

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  • Wendkouni Jean‐Baptiste Zongo
  • Bruno Larue
Abstract
In response to disease outbreak alerts in exporting countries, importing countries usually impose trade bans that vary in terms of product coverage and in terms of duration. We rely on a unique balanced panel dataset that covers four‐digit disaggregated beef products over the 1996–2013 period, to estimate the effect of a hypothetical removal of animal diseases outbreaks on trade flows. More specifically, we investigate how bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the foot and mouth diseases (FMDs) affect beef trade flows. We use a sectoral structural gravity approach to measure direct, conditional, and full effects, allowing inward and outward multilateral resistance indices, expenditures, and factory‐gate prices to adjust to the eradication of animal diseases. The indirect channels through which BSE and FMD impact trade are important. Our counterfactual experiment suggests that Canada would secure substantial gains from BSE and FMD eradication. En réponse aux alertes d'épidémies dans les pays exportateurs, les pays importateurs imposent généralement des interdictions d'importations qui varient en couverture des produits et en durée. Nous servant d'une base de données panel uniques, couvrant des produits bovins désagrégés à 4 chiffres sur la période 1996–2013, nous estimons l'effet d'une élimination hypothétique des maladies animales sur les flux commerciaux. Plus spécifiquement, nous examinons comment l'encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine (ESB) et la fièvre aphteuse influencent les flux commerciaux de viande bovine. Le modèle gravitationnel structurel sectoriel est utilisé pour mésurer les effets directs, conditionnels et globaux, en permettant ainsi aux indices de résistance multilatéraux entrants et sortants, aux dépenses et aux prix à la production de s'ajuster à l'éradication des maladies animales. Les canaux indirects par lesquels l'ESB et la fièvre aphteuse influent sur le commerce sont importants. Notre expérience contrefactuelle suggère que le Canada sécuriserait des gains importants suivant l'éradication de l'ESB et de la fièvre aphteuse.

Suggested Citation

  • Wendkouni Jean‐Baptiste Zongo & Bruno Larue, 2019. "A counterfactual experiment about the eradication of cattle diseases on beef trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 67(4), pages 379-396, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:67:y:2019:i:4:p:379-396
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12210
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    Cited by:

    1. Wendkouni Jean‐Baptiste Zongo & Bruno Larue & Carl Gaigné, 2023. "On export duration puzzles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 453-478, March.
    2. Anne‐Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné & Cristina Herghelegiu, 2023. "Do standards improve the quality of traded products?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1238-1290, November.
    3. Li, Jian & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2020. "The Impacts of African Swine Fever on Vertical and Spatial Hog Pricing and Market Integration in China," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304516, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Biden, Scott & Ker, Alan P. & Larue, Bruno & Duff, Stephen, 2024. "Economic impacts of a disease outbreak in Canada’s pork industry: Case of a price-taking, open country," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Maximilian Koppenberg & Martina Bozzola & Tobias Dalhaus & Stefan Hirsch, 2021. "Mapping potential implications of temporary COVID‐19 export bans for the food supply in importing countries using precrisis trade flows," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 25-43, January.

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